Let's make a deal in the classroom: Institutional solutions to the Monty Hall Dilemma

ABSTRACT The authors describe how the Monty Hall Dilemma, a well-known choice anomaly, can be demonstrated with a simple and versatile classroom experiment. In addition to demonstrating the anomaly, the experiment can be used to introduce students to some institutional modifications that have been shown to ameliorate it. This experiment, which can be tailored by instructors to meet specific learning objectives for a variety of courses, can also be used to frame broader discussions about rationality, institutions, and choices under uncertainty.

[1]  Jean-Robert Tyran,et al.  Do Institutions Promote Rationality? An Experimental Study of the Three-Door Anomaly , 2002 .

[2]  J. E. Mazur,et al.  Choice behavior of pigeons (Columba livia), college students, and preschool children (Homo sapiens) in the Monty Hall dilemma. , 2012, Journal of comparative psychology.

[3]  William Samuelson,et al.  Status quo bias in decision making , 1988 .

[4]  V. Smith.  Microeconomic Systems as an Experimental Science , 1982 .

[5]  Elisabet Tubau,et al.  Overcoming illusory inferences in a probabilistic counterintuitive problem: The role of explicit representations , 2003, Memory & cognition.

[6]  S. Krauss,et al.  The psychology of the Monty Hall problem: discovering psychological mechanisms for solving a tenacious brain teaser. , 2003, Journal of experimental psychology. General.

[7]  M B Habal,et al.  Let’s Make a Deal , 1984, Vinyl Leaves.

[8]  Julia E. Schroeder,et al.  Are birds smarter than mathematicians? Pigeons (Columba livia) perform optimally on a version of the Monty Hall Dilemma. , 2010, Journal of comparative psychology.

[9]  Steve B. Wyatt,et al.  Are Judgment Errors Reflected in Market Prices and Allocations? Experimental Evidence Based on the Monty Hall Problem , 2004 .

[10]  J. Petrocelli,et al.  Learning Inhibition in the Monty Hall Problem , 2011, Personality & social psychology bulletin.

[11]  L. Ross,et al.  Perseverance in self-perception and social perception: biased attributional processes in the debriefing paradigm. , 1975, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[12]  Dhananjay K. Gode,et al.  Allocative Efficiency of Markets with Zero-Intelligence Traders: Market as a Partial Substitute for Individual Rationality , 1993, Journal of Political Economy.

[13]  P. Onghena,et al.  A randomised Monty Hall experiment: The positive effect of conditional frequency feedback , 2015 .

[14]  Scott E. Page.  Let's make a deal , 1998 .

[15]  Andrea Morone,et al.  Monty Hall's Three Doors for Dummies , 2008 .

[16]  Richard N. Langlois,et al.  Rationality, institutions, and explanation , 1985 .

[17]  Elisabet Tubau,et al.  Enhancing Probabilistic Reasoning: The Role of Causal Graphs, Statistical Format and Numerical Skills. , 2008 .

[18]  H. Simon,et al.  A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice , 1955 .

[19]  Daniel Friedman,et al.  Monty Hall's Three Doors: Construction and Deconstruction of a Choice Anomaly , 1998 .

[20]  Jeffrey M. Stibel,et al.  The Collapsing Choice Theory: Dissociating Choice and Judgment in Decision Making , 2009 .

[21]  Nora Miller,et al.  Inevitable Illusions: How Mistakes of Reason Rule Our Minds , 2001 .