Probabilistic fracture mechanics applied to high temperature reliability

Abstract An example is used to demonstrate the applicability of Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics (PFM) methods in high temperature reliability assessment. The failure probability of a pipe under pure bending at a temperature of 973 K is calculated using both Monte Carlo simulation and the First Order Reliability Method. The advantages and the accuracy of approximative methods for calculating failure probabilities are demonstrated. Additionally, probabilistic and deterministic methods for reliability assessment are compared with each other. It is shown that a deterministic reliability assessment becomes inadequate in cases where the failure probability is determined by equally significant contributions of several random variables.

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