Evacuation plan evaluation: Assessment of mandatory and voluntary vehicular evacuation schemes by means of an analytical dynamic travel model

In this paper an evacuation simulation model is proposed, combining a dynamic travel demand component, an adaptive travel choice behavior component, and a dynamic network loading component. The travel demand component considers the primary choice facing the endangered residents, whether to participate in the evacuation, and if so, when to depart. The travel choice behavior component considers the secondary choice facing the evacuees, where to seek refuge and by which route to travel towards this safe destination. The network loading component considers both the dynamic traffic and hazard conditions, and propagates the evacuees through the infrastructure network. The proposed evacuation model can act on a broad spectrum of hazards, as it uses general features to compute the effects of the hazard on the evacuation. Furthermore, the model structure enables the assessment of various categories of evacuation, ranging from a voluntary evacuation to a mandatory evacuation. And, the behavioral responses of the evacuees towards evacuation instructions are modeled, such that instructions can be followed fully, followed in part, or rejected completely. Hence, the evacuation model has the potential to function as the decision support system for the supervising authority, while deciding on the appropriate evacuation scheme and the level of enforcement. An illustrative example of a hypothetical evacuation shows the principles and possibilities of the proposed evacuation model.