Dynamics of Ebola epidemics in West Africa 2014.

This paper investigates the dynamics of Ebola virus transmission in West Africa during 2014. The reproduction numbers for the total period of epidemic and for different consequent time intervals are estimated based on a simple linear model. It contains one major parameter - the average infectious period that defines the dynamics of epidemics. Numerical implementations are carried out on data collected from three countries Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia as well as the total data collected worldwide. Predictions are provided by considering different scenarios involving the average times of infectiousness for the next few months and the end of the current epidemic is estimated according to each scenario.

[1]  Maoxing Liu,et al.  Global stability analysis of an SIR epidemic model with demographics and time delay on networks , 2014 .

[2]  Xianning Liu,et al.  An SIR Epidemic Model with Time Delay and General Nonlinear Incidence Rate , 2014 .

[3]  B. Finkenstädt,et al.  Statistical Inference in a Stochastic Epidemic SEIR Model with Control Intervention: Ebola as a Case Study , 2006, Biometrics.

[4]  M. Marathe,et al.  Modeling the Impact of Interventions on an Epidemic of Ebola in Sierra Leone and Liberia , 2014, PLoS currents.

[5]  G. Chowell,et al.  Early transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease (EVD), West Africa, March to August 2014. , 2014, Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin.

[6]  G. Chowell,et al.  Transmission dynamics and control of Ebola virus disease (EVD): a review , 2014, BMC Medicine.

[7]  Gerardo Chowell,et al.  Is West Africa Approaching a Catastrophic Phase or is the 2014 Ebola Epidemic Slowing Down? Different Models Yield Different Answers for Liberia , 2014, PLoS currents.

[8]  Mikiko Senga,et al.  Ebola virus disease in West Africa--the first 9 months of the epidemic and forward projections. , 2014, The New England journal of medicine.

[9]  Pierre Magal,et al.  A Model of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic in West Africa with Contact Tracing , 2014, PLoS currents.

[10]  J. Hyman,et al.  The basic reproductive number of Ebola and the effects of public health measures: the cases of Congo and Uganda. , 2004, Journal of theoretical biology.

[11]  C. Althaus.  Estimating the Reproduction Number of Ebola Virus (EBOV) During the 2014 Outbreak in West Africa , 2014, PLoS currents.

[12]  Musa Mammadov,et al.  Dynamical Systems Described by Relational Elasticities with Applications , 2005 .