论文信息 - HISTORICAL TRENDS AND STATISTICS OF THE SOUTHERN OSCILLATION, EL NINO, AND INDONESIAN DROUGHTS

HISTORICAL TRENDS AND STATISTICS OF THE SOUTHERN OSCILLATION, EL NINO, AND INDONESIAN DROUGHTS

A 116-yr Southern Oscillation index record was used in conjunction with environmental data and reports from various authors on disturbances to the anchoveta fishery, marine bird life, etc. off the Peruvian coast, to infer the occurrence of past El Nino type events and their intensities. The resulting long time history substantiates our earlier report that certain Southern Oscillation index features are excellent precursors of subsequent El Nino type events. We suggest that statistics derived from this time history could be useful in the management of the Peruvian anchoveta fishery and for providing long-range outlooks on El Nino type activity. Anomalously heavy precipitation in the central and western .equatorial Pacific and Indonesian droughts were closely associated with El Nino type events.

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