Actuarial risk assessment of expected fatalities attributable to carbon capture and storage in 2050

This study estimates the human cost of failures in the CCS industry in 2050, using the actuarial approach. The range of expected fatalities is assessed integrating all steps of the CCS chain: additional coal production, coal transportation, carbon capture, transport, injection and storage, based on empirical evidence from technical or social analogues. The main finding is that a few hundred fatalities per year should be expected if the technology is used to avoid emitting 1 GtC yr-1 in 2050 at baseload coal power plants. The large majority of fatalities are attributable to mining and delivering more coal. These risks compare to today's industrial hazards: technical, knowable and occupational dangers for which there are socially acceptable non-zero risk levels. Some contemporary European societies tolerate about one fatality per thousand year around industrial installations. If storage sites perform like that, then expected fatalities per year due to leakage should have a minor contribution in the total expected fatalities per year: less than one. But to statistically validate such a safety level, reliability theory and the technology roadmap suggest that CO2 storage demonstration projects over the next 20 years have to cause exactly zero fatality.

[1]  Chakib Bouallou,et al.  Study of an innovative gas-liquid contactor for CO2 absorption , 2011 .

[2]  Kristen Averyt,et al.  IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers , 2007 .

[3]  Frank A. Felder.  A critical assessment of energy accident studies , 2009 .

[4]  Lukas H. Meyer,et al.  Summary for Policymakers , 2022, The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate.

[5]  Aie,et al.  CO2 Capture and Storage: A Key Carbon Abatement Option , 2008 .

[6]  Minh Ha-Duong,et al.  Zero is the only acceptable leakage rate for geologically stored CO2: an editorial comment , 2008 .

[7]  Sarah Wade,et al.  A multi-disciplinary framework to monetize financial consequences arising from CCS projects and motivate effective financial responsibility , 2010 .

[8]  Sally M. Benson,et al.  Well blowout rates and consequences in California Oil and Gas District 4 from 1991 to 2005: implications for geological storage of carbon dioxide , 2009 .

[9]  Tzimas Evangelos,et al.  The Evolution of the Extent and the Investment Requirements of a Trans-European CO2 Transport Network , 2010 .

[10]  E. Marszal,et al.  Tolerable risk guidelines. , 2001, ISA transactions.

[11]  Heleen de Coninck.  Advocacy for carbon capture and storage could arouse distrust. , 2010 .

[12]  John Gale,et al.  Current status of risk assessment and regulatory frameworks for geological CO2 storage , 2009 .

[13]  S. Hales,et al.  Climate change and human health: present and future risks , 2006, The Lancet.

[14]  O. Eiken,et al.  Latest time-lapse seismic data from Sleipner yield new insights into CO2 plume development , 2009 .

[15]  Elizabeth L. Malone,et al.  Moving from misinformation derived from public attitude surveys on carbon dioxide capture and storage towards realistic stakeholder involvement , 2010 .

[16]  Benjamin K. Sovacool,et al.  The costs of failure: a preliminary assessment of major energy accidents, 1907-2007 , 2008 .

[17]  Sam Holloway,et al.  Natural emissions of CO2 from the geosphere and their bearing on the geological storage of carbon dioxide , 2007 .

[18]  D. Istance.  Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development , 1966, Nature.

[19]  G. P. Hammond,et al.  Developing transition pathways for a low carbon electricity system in the UK , 2008, 2008 First International Conference on Infrastructure Systems and Services: Building Networks for a Brighter Future (INFRA).

[20]  Rolf Skjong.  Formal Safety Assessment and Goal Based Regulations at IMO: Lessons Learned (Invited Lecture) , 2005 .

[21]  Shahid Abbas Abbasi,et al.  Major accidents in process industries and an analysis of causes and consequences , 1999 .

[22]  Guilbert Jj.  The world health report 2002 - reducing risks, promoting healthy life. , 2003 .

[23]  Howard J. Herzog,et al.  Public risk perspectives on the geologic storage of carbon dioxide , 2009 .

[24]  Kamel Bennaceur,et al.  CO2 Capture and Storage: A Key Carbon Abatement Option , 2008 .

[25]  Lukas H. Meyer,et al.  Summary for policymakers , 2007 .

[26]  H. D. Coninck.  Advocacy for carbon capture and storage could arouse distrust , 2010, Nature.

[27]  John Gale,et al.  Transmission of CO2-Safety and Economic Considerations , 2004 .

[28]  J. Guilbert.  The world health report 2002 - reducing risks, promoting healthy life. , 2003, Education for health.

[30]  N. Nakicenovic,et al.  Climate change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Summary for Policymakers. , 2007 .

[31]  Jean-Philippe Nicot,et al.  Risk Assessment for future CO2 Sequestration Projects Based CO2 Enhanced Oil Recovery in the U.S. , 2009 .

[32]  Todd H. Weisgraber,et al.  Quantifying the potential exposure hazard due to energetic releases of CO2 from a failed sequestration well , 2009 .

[33]  B. Armstrong,et al.  Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions: overview and implications for policy makers , 2009, The Lancet.

[34]  M. Ivimey.  Annual report , 1958, IRE Transactions on Engineering Writing and Speech.

[35]  Stefan Hirschberg,et al.  Severe accident risks in fossil energy chains: A comparative analysis , 2008 .

[36]  James J. Dooley,et al.  Comparing Existing Pipeline Networks with the Potential Scale of Future U.S. CO2 Pipeline Networks , 2009 .

[37]  C. Starr.  Social benefit versus technological risk. , 1969, Science.

[38]  Shahriar Shafiee,et al.  When will fossil fuel reserves be diminished , 2009 .

[39]  Heleen Groenenberg,et al.  Large-scale CCS transport and storage networks in North-west and Central Europe , 2011 .

[40]  Ortwin Renn,et al.  Perception of risks. , 2004, Toxicology letters.

[41]  J. Hower,et al.  Geologic hazards in coal mining: Prediction and prevention , 2005 .

[42]  Ingrid Schjølberg,et al.  Security and tolerable risk for hydrogen service stations , 2008 .

[43]  Bart W. Terwel,et al.  Going beyond the properties of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) technology: How trust in stakeholders affects public acceptance of CCS , 2011 .

[44]  Virinder Singh,et al.  THE WORK THAT GOES INTO RENEWABLE ENERGY , 2002 .

[45]  K. P. Saripalli,et al.  Risk and Hazard Assessment for Projects Involving the Geological Sequestration of CO2 , 2003 .

[46]  Sally M. Benson,et al.  Lessons Learned from Natural and Industrial Analogues for Storage of Carbon Dioxide in Deep Geological Formations , 2002 .

[47]  David W. Keith,et al.  Carbon storage: the economic efficiency of storing CO2 in leaky reservoirs , 2003 .

[48]  A. Faaij,et al.  Health, Safety and Environmental Risks of Underground Co2 Storage – Overview of Mechanisms and Current Knowledge , 2006 .

[49]  P Slovic,et al.  Informing and educating the public about risk. , 1986, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[50]  Palle Haastrup,et al.  An analysis of the database coverage of industrial accidents involving hazardous materials in Europe , 1995 .