Estimating failure propagation in models of cascading blackouts

We compare and test statistical estimates of failure propagation in data from versions of a probabilistic model of loading-dependent cascading failure and a power systems blackout model of cascading transmission line overloads. The comparisons suggest mechanisms affecting failure propagation and are an initial step towards monitoring failure propagation from practical system data. Approximations to the probabilistic model describe the forms of probability distributions of cascade sizes.

[1]  Ian Dobson,et al.  Cascading dynamics and mitigation assessment in power system disturbances via a hidden failure model , 2005 .

[2]  I. Dobson,et al.  A LOADING-DEPENDENT MODEL OF PROBABILISTIC CASCADING FAILURE , 2005, Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences.

[3]  B A Carreras,et al.  Complex dynamics of blackouts in power transmission systems. , 2004, Chaos.

[4]  Ian Dobson,et al.  Probabilistic load-dependent cascading failure with limited component interactions , 2004, 2004 IEEE International Symposium on Circuits and Systems (IEEE Cat. No.04CH37512).

[5]  Ian Dobson,et al.  A branching process approximation to cascading load-dependent system failure , 2004, 37th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, 2004. Proceedings of the.

[6]  Ian Dobson,et al.  Dynamical and probabilistic approaches to the study of blackout vulnerability of the power transmission grid , 2004, 37th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, 2004. Proceedings of the.

[7]  Ian Dobson,et al.  A probabilistic loading-dependent model of cascading failure and possible implications for blackouts , 2003, 36th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, 2003. Proceedings of the.

[8]  Ian Dobson,et al.  Blackout mitigation assessment in power transmission systems , 2003, 36th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, 2003. Proceedings of the.

[9]  D. Jayaweera,et al.  Value of Security: Modeling Time-Dependent Phenomena and Weather Conditions , 2002, IEEE Power Engineering Review.

[10]  V. Vittal,et al.  Online Risk-Based Security Assessment , 2002, IEEE Power Engineering Review.

[11]  V. E. Lynch,et al.  Critical points and transitions in an electric power transmission model for cascading failure blackouts. , 2002, Chaos.

[12]  Ian Dobson,et al.  Dynamics, criticality and self-organization in a model for blackouts in power transmission systems , 2002, Proceedings of the 35th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences.

[13]  J. S. Thorp,et al.  A reliability study of transmission system protection via a hidden failure DC load flow model , 2002 .

[14]  J. McCalley,et al.  Dynamic decision-event trees for rapid response to unfolding events in bulk transmission systems , 2001, 2001 IEEE Porto Power Tech Proceedings (Cat. No.01EX502).

[15]  James D. McCalley,et al.  Dynamic decision-event trees for rapid response to unfolding events in bulk transmission systems , 2001, 2001 Power Engineering Society Summer Meeting. Conference Proceedings (Cat. No.01CH37262).

[16]  Ian Dobson,et al.  An initial model fo complex dynamics in electric power system blackouts , 2001, Proceedings of the 34th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences.

[17]  Ian Dobson,et al.  Modeling blackout dynamics in power transmission networks with simple structure , 2001, Proceedings of the 34th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences.

[18]  P. C. Consul.  On some models leading to the generalized poisson distribution , 1988 .

[19]  T. E. Harris,et al.  The Theory of Branching Processes. , 1963 .

[20]  T. Gerstenkorn.  On the generalized Poisson distributions , 1962 .

[21]  L. Gold.  Generalized poisson distributions , 1957 .