A Matrix-Variate t Model for Networks

Networks represent a useful tool to describe relationships among financial firms and network analysis has been extensively used in recent years to study financial connectedness. An aspect, which is often neglected, is that network observations come with errors from different sources, such as estimation and measurement errors, thus a proper statistical treatment of the data is needed before network analysis can be performed. We show that node centrality measures can be heavily affected by random errors and propose a flexible model based on the matrix-variate t distribution and a Bayesian inference procedure to de-noise the data. We provide an application to a network among European financial institutions.

[1]  J. Geweke,et al.  Bayesian Treatment of the Independent Student- t Linear Model , 1993 .

[2]  Alan M. Frieze,et al.  Random graphs , 2006, SODA '06.

[3]  John K Kruschke,et al.  Bayesian data analysis. , 2010, Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Cognitive science.

[4]  Monica Billio,et al.  Modeling Systemic Risk with Markov Switching Graphical SUR Models , 2015, Journal of Econometrics.

[5]  A. Lo,et al.  Econometric Measures of Connectedness and Systemic Risk in the Finance and Insurance Sectors , 2011 .

[6]  Roberto Casarin,et al.  Multilayer network analysis of oil linkages , 2020 .

[7]  Haiyan Huang,et al.  Network Modeling in Biology: Statistical Methods for Gene and Brain Networks. , 2021, Statistical science : a review journal of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics.

[8]  Roberto Casarin,et al.  Bayesian nonparametric sparse VAR models , 2016, Journal of Econometrics.

[9]  E. Todeva Networks , 2007 .

[10]  Rong Chen,et al.  Factor models for matrix-valued high-dimensional time series , 2016, Journal of Econometrics.

[11]  Luca Bagnato,et al.  Two new matrix-variate distributions with application in model-based clustering , 2020, Comput. Stat. Data Anal..

[12]  Roberto Casarin,et al.  Sparse Graphical Vector Autoregression: A Bayesian Approach , 2014 .

[13]  Robin Wilson,et al.  Modern Graph Theory , 2013 .

[14]  William Q. Meeker,et al.  Classification With the Matrix-Variate-t Distribution , 2019, Journal of computational and graphical statistics : a joint publication of American Statistical Association, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, Interface Foundation of North America.

[15]  Siem Jan Koopman,et al.  The dynamic factor network model with an application to international trade , 2020, Journal of Econometrics.

[16]  Vasyl Golosnoy,et al.  The Conditional Autoregressive Wishart Model for Multivariate Stock Market Volatility , 2010 .

[17]  Z. Wang,et al.  The structure and dynamics of multilayer networks , 2014, Physics Reports.

[18]  Daniele Durante,et al.  Bayesian dynamic financial networks with time-varying predictors , 2014, 1403.2272.

[19]  Elynn Y. Chen,et al.  Constrained Factor Models for High-Dimensional Matrix-Variate Time Series , 2017, Journal of the American Statistical Association.

[20]  Mark E. J. Newman,et al.  Structure and Dynamics of Networks , 2009 .

[21]  Yuewen Liu,et al.  Network Vector Autoregression , 2016 .

[22]  A. Rukhin Matrix Variate Distributions , 1999, The Multivariate Normal Distribution.

[23]  M. West,et al.  Bayesian analysis of matrix normal graphical models. , 2009, Biometrika.

[24]  D. F. Ahelegbey,et al.  Bayesian Graphical Models for Structural Vector Autoregressive Processes , 2012, Journal of Applied Econometrics.

[25]  F. Diebold,et al.  UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Center for Applied Financial Economics (CAFE) On the Network Topology of Variance Decompositions: Measuring the Connectedness of Financial Firms , 2011 .

[26]  S. T. Boris Choy,et al.  Stochastic volatility models with leverage and heavy-tailed distributions: A Bayesian approach using scale mixtures , 2011, Comput. Stat. Data Anal..

[27]  C. Gouriéroux,et al.  The Wishart Autoregressive Process of Multivariate Stochastic Volatility , 2009 .

[28]  Cinzia Viroli,et al.  Finite mixtures of matrix normal distributions for classifying three-way data , 2011, Stat. Comput..

[29]  Wolfgang Karl Härdle,et al.  Network Quantile Autoregression , 2016, Journal of Econometrics.

[30]  Helio S. Migon,et al.  Objective Bayesian analysis for the Student-t regression model , 2008 .

[31]  Matteo Barigozzi,et al.  NETS: Network Estimation for Time Series , 2018 .