Forecasting the Tropical Cyclone Genesis over the Northwest Pacific through Identifying the Causal Factors in Cyclone–Climate Interactions

AbstractHow to extract the causal relations in climate-cyclone interactions is an important problem in atmospheric science. Traditionally the most commonly used research methodology in this field is time-delayed correlation analysis. This may be not appropriate, since correlation cannot imply causality as it lacks the needed asymmetry or directedness between dynamical events. In this study, we introduced to this field a recently developed and very concise but rigorous formula, i.e., a formula for information flow (IF), to fulfill the purpose. We proposed a new way to normalize the IF, and then used the normalized IF (NIF) to detect the causal relation between the tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the western North Pacific (WNP) and a variety of climate modes. It is shown that El Nino–Southern Oscillation as well as Pacific decadal oscillation are the dominant factors that modulate the WNP TC genesis. Besides, the western Pacific subtropical high and the monsoon trough are also playing important roles in ...

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