Technology Foresight: A Bibliometric Analysis to Identify Leading and Emerging Methods

Foresight studies provide essential information used by the government, industry and academia for technology planning and knowledge expansion. They are complicated, resource-intensive, and quite expensive. The approach, methods, and techniques must be carefully identified and selected. Despite the global importance of foresight activities, there are no frameworks to help one develop and plan a proper foresight study. This paper begins to close this gap by analyzing and comparing different schools of thought and updating the literature with the most current tools and methods. Data mining techniques are used to identify articles through an extensive literature review. Social Network Analysis (SNA) techniques are used to identify and analyze leading journals, articles, and researchers. A framework is developed here to provide a guide to help in the selection of methods and tools for different approaches.

[1]  Alan L. Porter,et al.  Four dimensional Science and Technology planning: A new approach based on bibliometrics and technology roadmapping , 2014 .

[2]  Totti Könnölä,et al.  Diversity in foresight: Insights from the fostering of innovation ideas , 2007 .

[3]  J. V. van Dijck,et al.  Future Memories , 2008 .

[4]  Joseph Voros,et al.  A generic foresight process framework , 2003 .

[5]  Chih-Young Hung,et al.  Strategic foresight using a modified Delphi with end-user participation: A case study of the iPad's impact on Taiwan's PC ecosystem , 2013 .

[6]  Tugrul U. Daim,et al.  A comprehensive review of Turkish technology foresight project , 2009 .

[7]  Jerome C. Glenn,et al.  Collective intelligence systems and an application by The Millennium Project for the Egyptian Academy of Scientific Research and Technology , 2015 .

[8]  Ben R. Martin,et al.  The origins of the concept of ‘foresight’ in science and technology: An insider's perspective , 2010 .

[9]  K. Matthias Weber,et al.  Adaptive Foresight: Navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies , 2008 .

[10]  Joseph F. Coates,et al.  Strategic Foresight Issue: Introduction☆ , 2010 .

[11]  Attila Havas,et al.  Evolving Foresight in a Small Transition Economy: The Design, Use and Relevance of Foresight Methods in Hungary , 2003 .

[12]  Sungjoo Lee,et al.  An approach to discovering new technology opportunities: Keyword-based patent map approach , 2009 .

[13]  F. Geels.  From sectoral systems of innovation to socio-technical systems: Insights about dynamics and change from sociology and institutional theory , 2004 .

[14]  Murat Bengisu,et al.  Forecasting emerging technologies with the aid of science and technology databases , 2006 .

[15]  Michael D. McMaster.  Foresight: Exploring the structure of the future , 1996 .

[16]  Frank Ruff,et al.  Corporate foresight: integrating the future business environment into innovation and strategy , 2006, Int. J. Technol. Manag..

[17]  Riccardo Vecchiato,et al.  Strategic foresight in corporate organizations: handling the effect and response uncertainty of technology and social drivers of change , 2010 .

[18]  C. Bezold,et al.  Lessons from using scenarios for strategic foresight , 2010 .

[19]  J. Voros.  The generic foresight process , 2003 .

[20]  P. Andersen,et al.  The impact of national traditions and cultures on national foresight processes , 2014 .

[21]  Yongtae Park,et al.  Monitoring the organic structure of technology based on the patent development paths , 2009 .

[22]  Luke Georghiou,et al.  Rising to the challenges—Reflections on Future-oriented Technology Analysis , 2013 .

[23]  Ben R. Martin,et al.  Technology foresight for wiring up the national innovation system: experiences in Britain, Australia and New Zealand , 1999 .

[24]  Pin Luarn,et al.  Adaptive foresight modular design and dynamic adjustment mechanism: Framework and Taiwan case study , 2012 .

[25]  S. Breiner,et al.  Foresight in Science and Technology , 1996 .

[26]  Lena Neij,et al.  Cost development of future technologies for power generation--A study based on experience curves and complementary bottom-up assessments , 2008 .

[27]  David Güemes-Castorena,et al.  Technological foresight model for the identification of business opportunities (TEFMIBO) , 2013, 2012 Proceedings of PICMET '12: Technology Management for Emerging Technologies.

[28]  Totti Könnölä,et al.  Foresight within ERA-NETs: Experiences from the preparation of an international research program , 2008 .

[29]  V. A. Chavez.  Creative enterprise as a solution vector for twenty first century problems , 2013 .

[30]  Rafael Popper,et al.  Comparing foresight “style” in six world regions , 2008 .

[31]  Jean-Philippe Bootz,et al.  Strategic foresight and organizational learning: A survey and critical analysis , 2010 .

[32]  G. Tichy.  Over-Optimism Among Experts in Assessment and Foresight , 2002 .

[33]  Calvin S. Weng,et al.  The network effect on technological innovation – by the analysis of affiliation network , 2012 .

[34]  J. Sainte-Beuve,et al.  Foresight in a research institution: a critical review of two exercises , 2003 .

[35]  Hassan Masum,et al.  Five promising methods for health foresight , 2010 .

[36]  Thomas Durand,et al.  Twelve lessons from ‘Key Technologies 2005’: the French technology foresight exercise , 2003 .

[37]  J. Calof,et al.  Foresight impacts from around the world: a special issue , 2012 .

[38]  R. Popper.  How are foresight methods selected , 2008 .

[39]  C. Andriopoulos,et al.  Probing the future: Mobilising foresight in multiple-product innovation firms , 2006 .

[40]  H. Gemünden,et al.  Corporate Foresight: Its Three Roles in Enhancing the Innovation Capacity of a Firm , 2011 .

[41]  M. Öner,et al.  An integrated view of foresight: integrated foresight management model , 2003 .

[42]  F. Kodama,et al.  Measuring emerging categories of innovation: Modularity and business model , 2004 .

[43]  L. Costanzo.  Strategic foresight in a high-speed environment , 2004 .

[44]  René Rohrbeck,et al.  Collaborative Business Modelling for Systemic and Sustainability Innovations , 2013, Int. J. Technol. Manag..

[45]  Jan H. Kwakkel,et al.  Adaptive Robust Design under deep uncertainty , 2013 .

[46]  Alan L. Porter,et al.  Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) for new and emerging science and technologies , 2013 .

[47]  Heiko A. Gracht,et al.  Desirability bias in foresight: Consequences for decision quality based on Delphi results , 2011 .

[48]  Andrew D Maynard,et al.  Nanotechnology: the next big thing, or much ado about nothing? , 2007, The Annals of occupational hygiene.

[49]  S. Cunningham,et al.  Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods , 2004 .

[50]  Kathleen M. Wilburn,et al.  Scenarios and Strategic Decision Making , 2011 .

[51]  R. Rohrbeck,et al.  Environmental Scanning, Futures Research, Strategic Foresight and Organizational Future Orientation: A Review, Integration, and Future Research Directions , 2012 .

[52]  Ramakrishnan Ramanathan,et al.  Multicriteria Methods for Technology Foresight , 2003 .

[53]  R. Rohrbeck,et al.  Exploring Value Creation from Corporate-Foresight Activities , 2011 .

[54]  Kerstin Cuhls,et al.  Current Foresight Activities in , 1999 .

[55]  Roald A.A. Suurs,et al.  Patterns of expectations for emerging sustainable technologies , 2012 .

[56]  K. Cuhls.  From forecasting to foresight processes—new participative foresight activities in Germany , 2003 .

[57]  E. Uyarra,et al.  Policy instruments for public procurement of innovation: Choice, design and assessment , 2014 .

[58]  Derek Barker,et al.  Technology foresight using roadmaps , 1995 .

[59]  Riccardo Vecchiato,et al.  Environmental uncertainty, foresight and strategic decision making: an integrated study. , 2012 .

[60]  Benoît Godin,et al.  Measuring knowledge flows between countries: The use of scientific meeting data , 1998, Scientometrics.

[61]  J. Pretty,et al.  Sustainable intensification in African agriculture , 2011 .

[62]  Lockwood W. Carlson.  Using Technology Foresight To Create Business Value , 2004 .

[63]  Alberto De Toni,et al.  A methodology of technological foresight: A proposal and field study , 2011 .

[64]  Denis Loveridge,et al.  Reducing the democratic deficit in institutional foresight programmes: A case for critical systems thinking in nanotechnology , 2009 .

[65]  Magnus Boman,et al.  Networked foresight—The case of EIT ICT Labs , 2015 .

[66]  Felix Brandes.  The UK technology foresight programme: An assessment of expert estimates , 2009 .

[67]  Harold A. Linstone,et al.  Three eras of technology foresight , 2011 .

[68]  Philip Gummett.  Foresight in Science: Picking the Winners , 1985 .

[69]  Martin Amsteus.  Managers' foresight matters , 2011 .

[70]  Osmo Kuusi,et al.  Filters of weak signals hinder foresight: Monitoring weak signals efficiently in corporate decision-making , 2006 .

[71]  Radu Gheorghiu,et al.  Understanding normative foresight outcomes: Scenario development and the ‘veil of ignorance’ effect , 2013 .

[72]  Jan H. Kwakkel,et al.  Exploratory Modeling and Analysis, an approach for model-based foresight under deep uncertainty , 2013 .

[73]  Sandro Mendonça,et al.  The strategic strength of weak signal analysis , 2012 .

[74]  I. Miles.  The development of technology foresight: A review , 2010 .

[75]  Alan L. Porter,et al.  On the Future of Technological Forecasting , 2001 .

[76]  Ron Johnston,et al.  Developing the capacity to assess the impact of foresight , 2012 .

[77]  So Young Sohn,et al.  Patent-based QFD framework development for identification of emerging technologies and related business models: A case of robot technology in Korea , 2015 .

[78]  Philippe Destatte.  Foresight: A major tool in tackling sustainable development , 2010 .

[79]  Kumi Okuwada,et al.  Identifying expected areas of future innovation by combining foresight outputs , 2013 .

[80]  S. Walsh,et al.  Introduction to the field of creative enterprise , 2013 .

[81]  W. McDowall,et al.  Forecasts, scenarios, visions, backcasts and roadmaps to the hydrogen economy: A review of the hydrogen futures literature , 2006 .

[82]  Ozcan Saritas,et al.  Science and technology foresight baker's dozen: a pocket primer of comparative and combined foresight methods , 2011 .

[83]  George Boretos,et al.  IS model: A general model of forecasting and its applications in science and the economy , 2011 .

[84]  N. H. Ravindranath,et al.  The top 100 questions of importance to the future of global agriculture , 2010 .

[85]  Tobias Heger,et al.  Strategic Foresight for Collaborative Exploration of New Business Fields , 2011 .

[86]  Ozcan Saritas,et al.  Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Its Potential to Address Disruptive Transformations , 2011 .

[87]  R. Rohrbeck.  Harnessing a Network of Experts for Competitive Advantage: Technology Scouting in the ICT Industry , 2010 .

[88]  Beat Habegger,et al.  Strategic foresight in public policy: Reviewing the experiences of the UK, Singapore, and the Netherlands , 2010 .

[89]  Jonathan L Calof,et al.  The Integrative Domain of Foresight and Competitive Intelligence and its Impact on R&D Management , 2009 .

[90]  T. Durand.  Scenarios as Knowledge Transformed into Strategic “Re-presentations” : The use of Foresight Studies to help shape and implement strategy , 2008 .

[91]  James K. C. Chen,et al.  A study on knowledge flows of dye-sensitized solar cells’ patent , 2014 .

[92]  Jan Oliver Schwarz,et al.  The Value Contribution of Strategic Foresight: Insights from an Empirical Study on Large European Companies , 2013 .

[93]  Robert Phaal,et al.  Technology roadmapping—A planning framework for evolution and revolution , 2004 .

[94]  Anthony F. J. van Raan,et al.  Advanced bibliometric methods as quantitative core of peer review based evaluation and foresight exercises , 1996, Scientometrics.

[95]  A. Leigh.  Thinking Ahead: Strategic Foresight and Government , 2003 .

[96]  Faïz Gallouj,et al.  The futures of the service economy in Europe: A foresight analysis , 2015 .

[97]  Martin Amsteus.  Managerial foresight : measurement scale and estimation , 2011 .

[98]  Per Anker Jensen,et al.  Sectoral innovation system foresight in practice: Nordic facilities management foresight , 2014 .

[99]  Hariolf Grupp,et al.  National Technology Foresight Activities Around the Globe , 1999 .

[100]  Alan L. Porter,et al.  QTIP: Quick technology intelligence processes , 2005 .

[101]  Martyn Cordey-Hayes,et al.  Foresight as a core competence , 2001 .

[102]  Heinrich Arnold,et al.  IT Tools for Foresight: The Integrated Insight and Response System of Deutsche Telekom Innovation Laboratories , 2013 .

[103]  Theodore J. Gordon,et al.  RT Delphi: An efficient, “round-less” almost real time Delphi method ☆ , 2006 .

[104]  Joseph F. Coates.  The future of foresight—A US perspective , 2010 .

[105]  Susana Elena-Pérez,et al.  Ready for the future? Universities' capabilities to strategically manage their intellectual capital , 2011 .

[106]  Sirkka L. Jarvenpaa,et al.  An Information Company in Mexico: Extending the Resource-Based View of the Firm to a Developing Country Context , 1998, Inf. Syst. Res..

[107]  Ramón Compañó,et al.  Grasping the potential of online social networks for foresight , 2007 .