Using Scenarios to Assess Possible Future Impacts of Invasive Species in the Laurentian Great Lakes

AbstractThe expected impacts of invasive species are key considerations in selecting policy responses to potential invasions. But predicting the impacts of invasive species is daunting, particularly in large systems threatened by multiple invasive species, such as North America’s Laurentian Great Lakes. We developed and evaluated a scenario-building process that relied on an expert panel to assess possible future impacts of aquatic invasive species on recreational fishing in the Great Lakes. To maximize its usefulness to policy makers, this process was designed to be implemented relatively rapidly and considered a range of species. The expert panel developed plausible, internally consistent invasion scenarios for five aquatic invasive species, along with subjective probabilities of those scenarios. We describe these scenarios and evaluate this approach for assessing future invasive species impacts. The panel held diverse opinions about the likelihood of the scenarios, and only one scenario with impacts on...

[1]  Murray Turoff,et al.  The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications , 1976 .

[2]  J. Shireman,et al.  Coefficients of Condition for Largemouth Bass, Bluegill, and Redear Sunfish in Hydrilla-Infested Lakes , 1980 .

[3]  I. Janis.  Groupthink: Psychological Studies of Policy Decisions and Fiascoes , 1982 .

[4]  M. Wiley,et al.  The Relationship between Aquatic Macrophytes and Sport Fish Production in Illinois Ponds: A Simple Model , 1984 .

[5]  William R. Ferrell,et al.  Combining Individual Judgments , 1985 .

[6]  R. Noble,et al.  Response of a Reservoir Fish Community to Aquatic Vegetation Removal , 1993 .

[7]  Edward L. Mills,et al.  Exotic Species in the Great Lakes: A History of Biotic Crises and Anthropogenic Introductions , 1993 .

[8]  Edward L. Mills,et al.  Exotic Species and the Integrity of the Great Lakes. , 1994 .

[9]  P. Schoemaker.  Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking , 1995 .

[10]  E. Mills,et al.  A Review of the Biology and Ecology of the Quagga Mussel (Dreissena bugensis), a Second Species of Freshwater Dreissenid Introduced to North America , 1996 .

[11]  Lutz E. Schlange.  Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation , 1997 .

[12]  A. Ricciardi,et al.  Predicting the identity and impact of future biological invaders: a priority for aquatic resource management , 1998 .

[13]  C Leake,et al.  Decision Analysis for Management Judgement (2nd Edn) , 1998, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[14]  M. H. Olson,et al.  Managing Macrophytes to Improve Fish Growth: A Multi-lake Experiment , 1998 .

[15]  Melvin J. Dubnick.  Army Corps of Engineers , 1998 .

[16]  MacIsaac,et al.  Recent mass invasion of the North American Great Lakes by Ponto-Caspian species. , 2000, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[17]  Michael A. McClelland,et al.  THE LONG-TERM ILLINOIS RIVER FISH POPULATION MONITORING PROGRAM , 2006 .

[18]  James D. Williams,et al.  Snakeheads (Pisces, Channidae): A Biological Synopsis and Risk Assessment , 2004 .

[19]  P. Kareiva,et al.  Impact: Toward a Framework for Understanding the Ecological Effects of Invaders , 1999, Biological Invasions.

[20]  I. Bräuer,et al.  Economic evaluation of biological invasions—a survey , 2005 .

[21]  M. Burgman.  Risks and Decisions for Conservation and Environmental Management: Experts, stakeholders and elicitation , 2005 .

[22]  David Pimentel,et al.  Willard W. Cochrane, The Curse of American Agricultural Abundance: A Sustainable Solution, University of Nebraska Press, Lincoln (2003) ISBN 0803215290 145 pp , 2005 .

[23]  D. Pimentel,et al.  Update on the environmental and economic costs associated with alien-invasive species in the United States , 2005 .

[24]  D. Simberloff.  Risk Assessments, Blacklists, and White Lists for Introduced Species: Are Predictions Good Enough to Be Useful? , 2006, Agricultural and Resource Economics Review.

[25]  M. Rinella,et al.  Hierarchical Bayesian methods estimate invasive weed impacts at pertinent spatial scales , 2007, Biological Invasions.

[26]  Gregory A. Lang,et al.  Long-term Trends in Benthic Macroinvertebrate Populations in Lake Huron over the Past Four Decades , 2007 .

[27]  G. Sass,et al.  Reduced condition factor of two native fish species coincident with invasion of non‐native Asian carps in the Illinois River, U.S.A. Is this evidence for competition and reduced fitness? , 2007 .

[28]  D. Chapman,et al.  Bigheaded carps : a biological synopsis and environmental risk assessment , 2007 .

[29]  L. Herborg,et al.  Comparative distribution and invasion risk of snakehead (Channidae) and Asian carp (Cyprinidae) species in North America , 2007 .

[30]  J. Lennon,et al.  Comparative ecological niche models predict the invasive spread of variable-leaf milfoil (Myriophyllumheterophyllum) and its potential impact on closely related native species , 2009, Biological Invasions.

[31]  Sandra L. Cooke,et al.  Can filter‐feeding Asian carp invade the Laurentian Great Lakes? A bioenergetic modelling exercise , 2010 .

[32]  B. Leung,et al.  Is invasion history a useful tool for predicting the impacts of the world's worst aquatic invasive species? , 2011, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[33]  Daniel Simberloff,et al.  How common are invasion-induced ecosystem impacts? , 2011, Biological Invasions.

[34]  Richard P. Barbiero,et al.  Evidence for bottomup control of recent shifts in the pelagic food web of Lake Huron , 2011 .

[35]  Robin Gregory,et al.  Structured Decision Making: A Practical Guide to Environmental Management Choices , 2012 .

[36]  P. Kočovský,et al.  Thermal and hydrologic suitability of Lake Erie and its major tributaries for spawning of Asian carps , 2012 .

[37]  Daniel Sol,et al.  TEASIng apart alien species risk assessments: a framework for best practices. , 2012, Ecology letters.

[38]  Gregory L. Poe,et al.  Net Benefits of Recreational Fishing in the Great Lakes, Upper Mississippi River, and Ohio River Basins , 2012 .

[39]  Risk Analysis of Barramundi Perch Lates calcarifer Aquaculture in Florida , 2012 .

[40]  B. Lesht,et al.  Convergence of trophic state and the lower food web in Lakes Huron, Michigan and Superior , 2012 .

[41]  Dana M Infante,et al.  Joint analysis of stressors and ecosystem services to enhance restoration effectiveness , 2012, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[42]  P. Angermeier,et al.  Diet of non‐native northern snakehead (Channa argus) compared to three co‐occurring predators in the lower Potomac River, USA , 2012 .

[43]  J. Love,et al.  Will the Expansion of Northern Snakehead Negatively Affect the Fishery for Largemouth Bass in the Potomac River (Chesapeake Bay) , 2012 .

[44]  Anthony Ricciardi,et al.  Advancing impact prediction and hypothesis testing in invasion ecology using a comparative functional response approach , 2014, Biological Invasions.

[45]  P. Kočovský,et al.  First evidence of grass carp recruitment in the Great Lakes Basin , 2013 .

[46]  Michael J. Conroy,et al.  Decision Making in Natural Resource Management: A Structured, Adaptive Approach , 2013 .

[47]  M. G. Morgan.  Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy , 2014, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[48]  Roger M Cooke,et al.  Out-of-sample validation for structured expert judgment of Asian carp establishment in Lake Erie , 2014, Integrated environmental assessment and management.

[49]  W. L. Chadderton,et al.  Grass carp in the Great Lakes region: establishment potential, expert perceptions, and re-evaluation of experimental evidence of ecological impact , 2014 .

[50]  Travis O. Brenden,et al.  Changing Ecosystem Dynamics in the Laurentian Great Lakes: Bottom-Up and Top-Down Regulation , 2014 .

[51]  G. Gilioli,et al.  Environmental risk assessment for plant pests: a procedure to evaluate their impacts on ecosystem services. , 2014, The Science of the total environment.

[52]  J. Dick,et al.  Predicting the ecological impacts of a new freshwater invader: functional responses and prey selectivity of the ‘killer shrimp’,Dikerogammarus villosus, compared to the nativeGammarus pulex , 2013, Freshwater Biology.

[53]  D. Padilla,et al.  Zebra versus quagga mussels: a review of their spread, population dynamics, and ecosystem impacts , 2014, Hydrobiologia.

[54]  Yu-Chun Kao,et al.  The relative impacts of nutrient loads and invasive species on a Great Lakes food web: An Ecopath with Ecosim analysis , 2014 .

[55]  T. Johnson,et al.  Evaluation of Lake Ontario salmonid niche space overlap using stable isotopes , 2015 .

[56]  C. P. Madenjian,et al.  Coupling age-structured stock assessment and fish bioenergetics models: a system of time-varying models for quantifying piscivory patterns during the rapid trophic shift in the main basin of Lake Huron , 2015 .

[57]  L. Rudstam,et al.  Long-term trends in Lake Ontario's benthic macroinvertebrate community from 1994–2008 , 2015 .

[58]  Jeffrey E. Hill,et al.  Risk Screening of Arapaima, a New Species Proposed for Aquaculture in Florida , 2015 .

[59]  Roger M Cooke,et al.  Use of structured expert judgment to forecast invasions by bighead and silver carp in Lake Erie , 2015, Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology.

[60]  Roger M. Cooke,et al.  Forecasting the Impacts of Silver and Bighead Carp on the Lake Erie Food Web , 2016 .