A Social Interactions Model with Endogenous Friendship Formation and

This paper considers the problem caused by endogenous association of members within a network when the spatial autoregressive (SAR) model is used to study outcomes with social interactions. When the spatial weights matrix (sociomatrix; adjacency matrix) in the SAR model represents a network structure, it might correlate with the disturbance term of the outcome equations which in consequence causes an endogenous selection problem in outcomes. We take into account this problem of selection bias with a modeling approach for a friendship network. In this approach, a statistical network model which has an economic foundation is adopted to explain the endogenous network formation process. By specifying unobserved components in both the network model and the SAR outcome equation, we can capture the correlation between the network formation process and the outcome process and then restore a proper estimation procedure for the SAR outcome equations. The estimation of this model is demonstrated to be computationally tractable via Bayesian simulation methods. We provide a Monte Carlo experiment and empirical applications using the Add Health data to demonstrate the usefulness of this modeling approach.

[1]  William A. Brock,et al.  Discrete Choice with Social Interactions , 2001 .

[2]  D. McFadden Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior , 1972 .

[3]  G. Imbens,et al.  Social Networks and the Identification of Peer Effects , 2013 .

[4]  J. Besag Spatial Interaction and the Statistical Analysis of Lattice Systems , 1974 .

[5]  Stanley Wasserman,et al.  Social Network Analysis: Methods and Applications , 1994, Structural analysis in the social sciences.

[6]  John Geweke,et al.  Efficient Simulation from the Multivariate Normal and Student-t Distributions Subject to Linear Constraints and the Evaluation of Constraint Probabilities , 1991 .

[7]  T. Lancaster An Introduction to Modern Bayesian Econometrics , 2004 .

[8]  J. Q. Smith,et al.  1. Bayesian Statistics 4 , 1993 .

[9]  A. Gelfand,et al.  Efficient parametrisations for normal linear mixed models , 1995 .

[10]  L. Tierney Markov Chains for Exploring Posterior Distributions , 1994 .

[11]  Steven G. Rivkin,et al.  Tiebout sorting, aggregation and the estimation of peer group effects , 2001 .

[12]  S. Hoffman,et al.  The Effect of Neighborhood Characteristics on Young Adult Outcomes: Alternative Estimates. , 1999 .

[13]  M. Newton,et al.  Estimating the Integrated Likelihood via Posterior Simulation Using the Harmonic Mean Identity , 2006 .

[14]  J. Propp,et al.  Exact sampling with coupled Markov chains and applications to statistical mechanics , 1996 .

[15]  Yves Zenou,et al.  Peer Effects and Social Networks in Education , 2008, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[16]  Marta Tienda,et al.  High School Peer Networks and College Success: Lessons from Texas. Discussion Paper Series DP 2008-07. , 2008 .

[17]  Zoubin Ghahramani,et al.  MCMC for Doubly-intractable Distributions , 2006, UAI.

[18]  Y. Zenou,et al.  Juvenile Delinquency and Conformism , 2009 .

[19]  S. Wasserman,et al.  Logit models and logistic regressions for social networks: I. An introduction to Markov graphs andp , 1996 .

[20]  Lung-fei Lee,et al.  POOLING ESTIMATES WITH DIFFERENT RATES OF CONVERGENCE: A MINIMUM χ2 APPROACH WITH EMPHASIS ON A SOCIAL INTERACTIONS MODEL , 2009, Econometric Theory.

[21]  J. Heckman The Common Structure of Statistical Models of Truncation, Sample Selection and Limited Dependent Variables and a Simple Estimator for Such Models , 1976 .

[22]  W. Evans,et al.  Measuring Peer Group Effects: A Study of Teenage Behavior , 1992, Journal of Political Economy.

[23]  Matthew O. Jackson,et al.  An Overview of Social Networks and Economic Applications , 2011 .

[24]  Michael Pfaffermayr,et al.  Social Capital Formation and Intra Familial Correlation: A Social Panel Perspective , 2009 .

[25]  Gareth O. Roberts,et al.  Examples of Adaptive MCMC , 2009 .

[26]  Faming Liang,et al.  A double Metropolis–Hastings sampler for spatial models with intractable normalizing constants , 2010 .

[27]  Dale J. Poirier,et al.  REVISING BELIEFS IN NONIDENTIFIED MODELS , 1998, Econometric Theory.

[28]  Osman Dogan,et al.  GMM Estimation of Spatial Autoregressive Models with Autoregressive and Heteroskedastic Disturbances , 2013 .

[29]  J. LeSage Introduction to spatial econometrics , 2009 .

[30]  Lung-fei Lee,et al.  Binary Choice Models with Social Network under Heterogeneous Rational Expectations , 2014, Review of Economics and Statistics.

[31]  Cheng Hsiao,et al.  Chapter 4 Identification , 1983 .

[32]  C. Geyer,et al.  Constrained Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood for Dependent Data , 1992 .

[33]  Peter D. Hoff,et al.  Latent Space Approaches to Social Network Analysis , 2002 .

[34]  Angelo Mele,et al.  A Structural Model of Segregation in Social Networks , 2010 .

[35]  Alberto Caimo,et al.  Bayesian inference for exponential random graph models , 2010, Soc. Networks.

[36]  J. Møller,et al.  An efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo method for distributions with intractable normalising constants , 2006 .

[37]  D. Poirier,et al.  On the Predictive Distributions of Outcome Gains in the Presence of an Unidentified Parameter , 2003 .

[38]  Marcel Fafchamps,et al.  Risk Sharing and Network Formation , 2007 .

[39]  A. Raftery,et al.  Model‐based clustering for social networks , 2007 .

[40]  D. J. Strauss,et al.  Pseudolikelihood Estimation for Social Networks , 1990 .

[41]  Robert A. Moffitt,et al.  The Estimation of Wage Gains and Welfare Gains in Self-selection , 1987 .

[42]  D. Hunter,et al.  Goodness of Fit of Social Network Models , 2008 .

[43]  John M. Olin On MCMC sampling in hierarchical longitudinal models , 1999 .

[44]  Brian Krauth,et al.  Simulation-based estimation of peer effects , 2006 .

[45]  T. Rothenberg Identification in Parametric Models , 1971 .

[46]  Kata Mihaly,et al.  Do More Friends Mean Better Grades? Student Popularity and Academic Achievement , 2009 .

[47]  R. Moffitt Policy Interventions, Low-Level Equilibria, and So-cial Interactions , 1999 .

[48]  Tom A. B. Snijders,et al.  Introduction to stochastic actor-based models for network dynamics , 2010, Soc. Networks.

[49]  Antoni Calvó-Armengol,et al.  Centre De Referència En Economia Analítica Barcelona Economics Working Paper Series Working Paper Nº 178 Who's Who in Networks. Wanted: the Key Player Who's Who in Networks. Wanted: the Key Player Barcelona Economics Wp Nº 178 , 2022 .

[50]  Tom A. B. Snijders,et al.  Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation of Exponential Random Graph Models , 2002, J. Soc. Struct..

[51]  J. LeSage Bayesian Estimation of Spatial Autoregressive Models , 1997 .

[52]  Jun S. Liu,et al.  The Collapsed Gibbs Sampler in Bayesian Computations with Applications to a Gene Regulation Problem , 1994 .

[53]  Steven N. Durlauf,et al.  Identification of binary choice models with social interactions , 2007 .

[54]  Siddhartha Chib,et al.  Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics , 1996, Econometric Theory.

[55]  H. Haario,et al.  An adaptive Metropolis algorithm , 2001 .

[56]  S. Rendon Fixed and Random Effects in Classical and Bayesian Regression , 2002 .

[57]  H. Akaike,et al.  Information Theory and an Extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle , 1973 .

[58]  Xu Lin,et al.  Binary Choice Models with Social Interactions under Heterogeneous Rational Expectations by Lung , 2007 .

[59]  Y. Zenou,et al.  Endogenous peer effects: local aggregate or local average? , 2014 .

[60]  Marcel Fafchamps,et al.  The formation of risk sharing networks , 2007 .

[61]  Bruce A. Weinberg,et al.  Social Interactions with Endogenous Associations , 2007 .

[62]  W. Michael Conklin,et al.  Monte Carlo Methods in Bayesian Computation , 2001, Technometrics.

[63]  M. Jackson,et al.  An Economic Model of Friendship: Homophily, Minorities and Segregation , 2007 .

[64]  Paolo Pin,et al.  Identifying the roles of race-based choice and chance in high school friendship network formation , 2010, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[65]  J. LeSage Bayesian Estimation of Limited Dependent Variable Spatial Autoregressive Models , 2010 .

[66]  Bernard Fortin,et al.  Identification of Peer Effects through Social Networks , 2007, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[67]  Bernard Fortin,et al.  The Econometrics of Social Networks , 2009 .

[68]  Xu Lin,et al.  Identifying Peer Effects in Student Academic Achievement by Spatial Autoregressive Models with Group Unobservables , 2010, Journal of Labor Economics.

[69]  J. Heckman Sample selection bias as a specification error , 1979 .

[70]  James P. LeSage,et al.  Spatial and spatiotemporal econometrics , 2004 .

[71]  Xiaodong Liu,et al.  Specification and Estimation of Social Interaction Models with Network Structures , 2010 .

[72]  Sylvia Richardson,et al.  Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice , 1997 .

[73]  James P. LeSage,et al.  A BAYESIAN PROBIT MODEL WITH SPATIAL DEPENDENCIES , 2004 .

[74]  K. Harris,et al.  The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health) Twin Data , 2006, Twin Research and Human Genetics.

[75]  Philip Heidelberger,et al.  Simulation Run Length Control in the Presence of an Initial Transient , 1983, Oper. Res..

[76]  J. Udry,et al.  The National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health, Waves I & II (Add Health), 1994-1996: (384982004-001) , 1996 .

[77]  J. Heckman Dummy Endogenous Variables in a Simultaneous Equation System , 1977 .

[78]  A. Raftery,et al.  How Many Iterations in the Gibbs Sampler , 1991 .

[79]  Siddhartha Chib,et al.  Panel Data Modeling and Inference: A Bayesian Primer , 2008 .

[80]  C. Manski Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem , 1993 .

[81]  H. Kelejian,et al.  Specification and Estimation of Spatial Autoregressive Models with Autoregressive and Heteroskedastic Disturbances , 2008, Journal of econometrics.

[82]  Patrick Sevestre,et al.  The Econometrics of Panel Data , 1993 .

[83]  Sylvia Richardson,et al.  Inference and monitoring convergence , 1995 .

[84]  Lung-fei Lee,et al.  GMM estimation of social interaction models with centrality , 2010 .

[85]  Bernard Fortin,et al.  Do Peers Affect Student Achievement? Evidence from Canada Using Group Size Variation , 2010 .

[86]  Anil Nathan The Effects of Racial and Extracurricular Friendship Diversity on Achievement , 2008 .

[87]  Lung-fei Lee,et al.  Identification and estimation of econometric models with group interactions, contextual factors and fixed effects , 2007 .

[88]  Daniel Aaronson,et al.  Using sibling data to estimate the impact of neighborhoods on children's educational outcomes , 1998 .

[89]  D. Zimmerman Peer Effects in Academic Outcomes: Evidence from a Natural Experiment , 1999, Review of Economics and Statistics.