Flash droughts in a typical humid and subtropical basin: A case study in the Gan River Basin, China

Abstract As opposed to traditional drought events, flash droughts evolve rapidly and are characterized by soil moisture deficits. The general lack of high resolution soil moisture and evapotranspiration data makes identifying flash droughts at short-term scales (pentads or weeks) nearly impossible, particularly at the basin scale. In this study, we investigated the spatial patterns, temporal characteristics, and related mechanisms of flash droughts in a humid and subtropical basin (Gan River Basin) in China. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model can accurately reflect hydrological processes in the Gan River Basin at daily and monthly time scales; here, flash droughts were determined based on VIC outputs (soil moisture and evapotranspiration) and meteorological observations (maximum temperature and precipitation) during the growing season (March-October) from 1961 to 2013. We classified flash droughts into two categories (heat wave and precipitation deficit flash droughts) based on the formation mechanisms. Heat wave flash droughts are high temperature driven events, high temperatures (heat waves) cause evapotranspiration to increase and soil moisture to decrease rapidly. The main driver of precipitation deficit flash droughts is precipitation deficits, which cause soil moisture to drop and in turn cause evapotranspiration anomalies to decrease and temperature to increase. The northern part of the basin is apparently vulnerable to heat wave flash droughts, whereas precipitation deficit flash droughts tend to occur across the central and southern parts of the basin. Precipitation deficit flash droughts are more common than heat wave flash droughts in general. Both types of flash droughts became significantly more frequent from 1997 to 2013. These increases in both types of flash droughts are likely attributable to climate-related variables such as temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture during 1997–2013. As evidenced by our investigation of the evolution of the two types of flash droughts and the example of 2003 summer flash drought across the Gan River Basin, flash droughts can evolve into prolonged droughts.

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