论文信息 - I knew it would happen: Remembered probabilities of once—future things - 字舞流文

I knew it would happen: Remembered probabilities of once—future things

B. Fischhoff | R. Beyth | Baruch Fischhoff

[1] A. Tversky,et al. Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.

[2] Daniel Kahneman,et al. Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability , 1973 .

[3] Paul Slovic,et al. From Shakespeare to Simon: speculations--and some evidence-- about man's ability to process information , 1972 .

[4] Gordon F. Pitz,et al. Confidence and decision speed in the revision of opinion , 1968 .

[5] S. Itzkoff,et al. What Is History , 1962, History of Education Quarterly.

[6] R. Wohlstetter,et al. Pearl Harbor , 1962 .