Multi-Model Fusion Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Random Forest Feature Selection and Hybrid Neural Network

In an increasingly open electricity market environment, short-term load forecasting (STLF) can ensure the power grid to operate safely and stably, reduce resource waste, power dispatching, and provide technical support for demand-side response. Recently, with the rapid development of demand side response, accurate load forecasting can better provide demand side incentive for regional load of prosumer groups. Traditional machine learning prediction and time series prediction based on statistics failed to consider the non-linear relationship between various input features, resulting in the inability to accurately predict load changes. Recently, with the rapid development of deep learning, extensive research has been carried out in the field of load forecasting. On this basis, a feature selection algorithm based on random forest is first used in this paper to provide a basis for the selection of the input features of the load forecasting model. After the input features are selected, a hybrid neural network STLF algorithm based on multi-model fusion is proposed, of which the main structure of the hybrid neural network is composed of convolutional neural network and bidirectional gated recurrent unit (CNN-BiGRU). The input data is obtained by using long sliding time windows of different steps, then multiple CNN-BiGRU models are trained respectively. The forecasting results of multiple models are averaged to get the final forecasting load value. The load datasets come from a region in New Zealand and a region in Zhejiang, China, are used as load forecast examples. Finally, a variety of load forecasting algorithms are introduced for comparison. The experimental results show that our method has a higher accuracy than comparison models.

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