Predictive inferences take time to develop

Abstract In order to determine the time course of inferences about predictable events, predicting or control contexts were presented, followed by a target word (Exps. 1A, B, and C) or a continuation sentence (Exp. 2) that confirmed or disconfirmed the predicted event. Relative to the control condition, under the predicting condition there was facilitation in naming the confirming target words 1500 ms after the onset of the last word in the context (Exp. 1C), but not after 500 ms (Exp. 1A), and only a tendency after 1000 ms (Exp. 1B). In addition, there was facilitation in reading the post-target and final regions of the continuation sentence that confirmed the predicted event, as well as inhibition when the predicted event was disconfirmed, but no effect was observed on the target word itself (Exp. 2). It is concluded that, when the predicted event is highly constrained by the context, predictive inferences are likely to be drawn on-line, but they take time to construct.

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