A Decision Model for Choosing among Photovoltaic Technologies to Generate Electricity at Grid-Connected Air Force Facilities: A Value-Focused Approach

Abstract : The United States is currently consuming fossil fuels faster than natural processes can replace them. Our nation's leaders recognize that a diverse energy portfolio including renewable energy is the key to maintaining our economy, security, and the environment. The federal government is by far the greatest energy consumer; thus, our nation's leaders have directed federal agencies to strive to increase the use of renewable energy at federal facilities. Solar electricity technologies, in the form of photovoltaics, have great potential in the renewable energy mix. Although a major strategy should be integrating photovoltaics into the design of new facilities, an important early consideration should be the installation of photovoltaic modules in open areas and/or module retrofits onto existing structures. This research developed a model based on decision makers' value systems to quantify and rank several photovoltaic technologies. The goal of the model was to determine what alternatives would most align with Air Force energy and environmental objectives. After working with subject matter experts at three bases, a comprehensive hierarchy was developed. This hierarchy was then used to find the best alternatives at one base. It was found that photovoltaic technologies may indeed successfully compete with grid-supplied electricity when utilizing a value-focused approach.

[1]  G. R. Awan.  Cadmium telluride for solar cells , 1987 .

[2]  E. Alsema,et al.  Life cycle assessment of photovoltaics: perceptions, needs, and challenges , 2005, Conference Record of the Thirty-first IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, 2005..

[3]  Jürgen Schumacher,et al.  Device physics of silicon solar cells , 2001 .

[4]  Stephen P. Chambal,et al.  Decision Analysis Methodology to Evaluate Integrated Solid Waste Management Alternatives , 2001 .

[5]  Eric A. Queddeng.  Decision Analysis Using Value-Focused Thinking to Select Renewable Alternative Fuels , 2012 .

[6]  A. J. Linenthal,et al.  Past and present. , 1987, The Pharos of Alpha Omega Alpha-Honor Medical Society. Alpha Omega Alpha.

[7]  Ken Zweibel.  Cadmium Facts and Handy Comparisons , 2000 .

[8]  J. Middleton,et al.  Sustainable Development Policy , 2002 .

[9]  Kosuke Kurokawa,et al.  3rd World Conference on Photovoltaic Energy Conversion , 2003, 3rd World Conference onPhotovoltaic Energy Conversion, 2003. Proceedings of.

[10]  Riccardo Battisti,et al.  Evaluation of technical improvements of photovoltaic systems through life cycle assessment methodology , 2005 .

[11]  Ralph L. Keeney,et al.  Using Values in Planning Wastewater Facilities for Metropolitan Seattle , 1996 .

[12]  Christopher M. Hardingham.  Cells and Systems for Space Applications , 2001 .

[13]  Joshua M. Pearce.  Photovoltaics - A Path to Sustainable Futures , 2002 .

[14]  K. Matsumoto,et al.  Research & development on recycling technology of photovoltaic power generation systems - social system for PV recycling , 2003, 3rd World Conference onPhotovoltaic Energy Conversion, 2003. Proceedings of.

[15]  Ronald A. Howard,et al.  Decision analysis: practice and promise , 1988 .

[16]  León.  Value-Focused Thinking versus Alternative-Focused Thinking: Effects on Generation of Objectives. , 1999, Organizational behavior and human decision processes.

[17]  Björn A. Sandén,et al.  The economic and institutional rationale of PV subsidies , 2004 .

[18]  K. M. Hynes,et al.  Environmental impacts of PV systems-ground-based vs. BIPV , 1997, Conference Record of the Twenty Sixth IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference - 1997.

[19]  G. Tangen.  Methodological and organizational aspects of introducing MCDM for planning hydropower plant reconditioning , 1997, 1997 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics. Computational Cybernetics and Simulation.

[20]  Wolfgang Baumjohann,et al.  Climate and weather of the Sun-Earth system: CAWSES , 2003 .

[21]  D. Todd,et al.  The Sun , 1870, Nature.

[22]  EnergyInformationAdministration.  Annual Energy Outlook 2008 With Projections to 2030 , 2008 .

[23]  R. Dufo-López,et al.  Economical and environmental analysis of grid connected photovoltaic systems in Spain , 2006 .

[24]  James S Duke.  Decision Analysis Using Value-Focused Thinking to Select Renewable Energy Sources , 2012 .

[25]  Martin A. Green,et al.  Crystalline Silicon Solar Cells , 2015 .

[26]  D. Carlson,et al.  Amorphous silicon solar cells , 1977, IEEE Transactions on Electron Devices.

[27]  Vasilis Fthenakis,et al.  Overview of Potential Hazards , 2003 .

[28]  Christy Herig.  Update on the Million Solar Roofs Initiative , 1999 .

[29]  J. Plastow,et al.  Added values of photovoltaic systems , 2003, 3rd World Conference onPhotovoltaic Energy Conversion, 2003. Proceedings of.

[30]  Jimmy J. Jeoun.  Using Value-Focused Thinking to Evaluate the Practicality of Ground-Source Heat Pumps at Military Installations , 2005 .

[31]  B. Clinton.  Executive Order 13123: Greening the Government Through Efficient Energy Management , 1999 .

[32]  Daniel N. Baker,et al.  Effects of the Sun on the Earth's environment , 2000 .

[33]  P. Fairley.  BP solar ditches thin-film photovoltaics , 2003, IEEE Spectrum.

[34]  Vasilis Fthenakis,et al.  Life cycle impact analysis of cadmium in CdTe PV production , 2004 .

[35]  H. Schock,et al.  Cu ( In , Ga ) Se 2 SOLAR CELLS , 2001 .

[36]  E. A. Alsema,et al.  Health, safety and environmental issues in thin film manufacturing , 1997 .

[37]  K. Hynes,et al.  An assessment of the environmental impacts of thin film cadmium telluride modules based on life cycle analysis , 1994, Proceedings of 1994 IEEE 1st World Conference on Photovoltaic Energy Conversion - WCPEC (A Joint Conference of PVSC, PVSEC and PSEC).

[38]  Ralph L. Keeney,et al.  Value-Focused Thinking , 1996 .

[39]  George W. Bush.  President Bush Delivers State of the Union Address [January 28, 2008] , 2008 .

[40]  Vincenzo Balzani,et al.  Solar Energy Basics , 2010 .

[41]  R. Hill,et al.  PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES, SYSTEMS AND APPLICATIONS , 2001 .