Centers for Disease Control

In order to test for the presence of full moon effects on birth and conception, deterministic regression components are added to previously developed time series models for monthly U.S. general fertility rates. These time series models included a stochastic ARIMA component and other deterministic components for outliers and calendar effects. The components are estimated jointly using efficient statistical procedures and statistical tests are carried out to determine the significance of the lunar component. No significant lunar effects are found. * This work was carried out while the author was a mathematical statistician at the U.S. Census Bureau.

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