Modelling large scale evacuation scenarios to build safer cities

Introduction Use of computer models to plan emergency evacuations has greatly increased recently due to their capacity to simulate multiple factors such as pre-movement times, walking speeds and route choice in more detail than before. Such computational capability now allows for the simulation of many people over large areas. Through the analysis of ‘what if’ scenarios it is possible to reduce the risk of deaths and injuries from an incident. Advantages that micro simulation modelling can bring to evacuation planning are already known but it has rarely been applied to larger scenarios such as cities or other populated areas where different kinds of emergency situations may occur. These include natural disasters (eg floods in the UK and wildfires in Canada in 2016), acts of terror (Paris in 2015) or pollution (Fukushima in 2011).