Drivers of stagnating global carbon intensity of electricity and the way forward

Despite the signing of the Paris climate agreement, there is still great uncertainty regarding the world's ability to decarbonize and meet the 2°C target. In this regard, the electricity production sector deserves particular attention. The sector has the largest decarbonization potential and its share of the world's CO2 emissions from fuel combustion increased from 30% in 1990 to 36% in 2014. To better understand global trends, this study analyses the factors influencing changes in the global aggregate carbon intensity (ACI) of electricity, a measure of the level of CO2 emissions per unit of electricity produced, over the last 25 years using multidimensional index decomposition analysis. It finds that global ACI barely improved since 1990 because of a shift in electricity production from developed to developing countries with higher ACIs. This geographical shift offset consistent improvements to power generation efficiency worldwide and is likely to persist in the future. To keep the 2°C target realisable, it is imperative to enhance international cooperation to lower the ACIs of emerging economies and deepen the penetration of renewables, which have thus far performed below expectations.

[1]  Richard York,et al.  Do alternative energy sources displace fossil fuels , 2012 .

[2]  B. Stram.  Key challenges to expanding renewable energy , 2016 .

[3]  B. W. Ang,et al.  Carbon emission intensity in electricity production: A global analysis , 2016 .

[4]  B. W. Ang,et al.  Carbon intensity of electricity in ASEAN: Drivers, performance and outlook , 2016 .

[5]  Frede Blaabjerg,et al.  Renewable energy resources: Current status, future prospects and their enabling technology , 2014 .

[6]  F. Geels.  Regime Resistance against Low-Carbon Transitions: Introducing Politics and Power into the Multi-Level Perspective , 2014 .

[7]  Janssens-Maenhout Greet,et al.  CO2 emissions from fuel combustion: Part III: Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions , 2016 .

[8]  Atul K. Raturi,et al.  Renewables 2016 Global status report , 2015 .

[9]  Sunil Malla,et al.  CO2 emissions from electricity generation in seven Asia-Pacific and North American countries: A decomposition analysis , 2009 .

[10]  James H. Williams,et al.  The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP): insights and emerging issues , 2016 .

[11]  R. Haas,et al.  Potentials and prospects for renewable energies at global scale , 2008 .

[12]  Feng Wang,et al.  China's Renewable Energy Policy: Commitments and Challenges , 2010 .

[13]  Lukas H. Meyer,et al.  Summary for Policymakers , 2022, The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate.

[14]  Michael T. Rock,et al.  Factors Influencing Energy Intensity in Four Chinese Industries , 2013 .

[15]  B. W. Ang,et al.  Handling zero values in the logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition approach , 2007 .

[16]  Yasumasa Fujii,et al.  Assessment of post-Fukushima renewable energy policy in Japan's nation-wide power grid , 2017 .

[17]  M. Souliotis,et al.  Grid parity of solar energy: imminent fact or future's fiction , 2016 .

[18]  Michael A. Levi.  Climate consequences of natural gas as a bridge fuel , 2013, Climatic Change.

[19]  Paul A. Steenhof,et al.  Decomposition for emission baseline setting in China's electricity sector , 2007 .

[20]  Douglas B. Reynolds,et al.  Former Soviet Union oil production and GDP decline: Granger causality and the multi-cycle Hubbert curve , 2008 .

[21]  Danae Diakoulaki,et al.  A decomposition analysis of the driving factors of CO2 (Carbon dioxide) emissions from the power sector in the European Union countries , 2016 .

[22]  B. W. Ang,et al.  Potential for reducing global carbon emissions from electricity production—A benchmarking analysis , 2011 .

[23]  W. R. Morrow,et al.  The Technology Path to Deep Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cuts by 2050: The Pivotal Role of Electricity , 2012, Science.

[24]  Lisha Yang,et al.  Carbon dioxide-emission in China׳s power industry: Evidence and policy implications , 2016 .

[25]  Atul K. Jain,et al.  Substitution of Natural Gas for Coal: Climatic Effects of Utility Sector Emissions , 2002 .

[26]  Min Zhou,et al.  Decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions from electricity generation in China , 2013 .

[27]  Nan Liu,et al.  A regional analysis of carbon intensities of electricity generation in China , 2017 .

[28]  B. W. Ang,et al.  Multilevel index decomposition analysis: Approaches and application , 2014 .