Cross‐scale impact of climate temporal variability on ecosystem water and carbon fluxes

While the importance of ecosystem functioning is undisputed in the context of climate change and Earth system modeling, the role of short-scale temporal variability of hydrometeorological forcing (~1?h) on the related ecosystem processes remains to be fully understood. Various impacts of meteorological forcing variability on water and carbon fluxes across a range of scales are explored here using numerical simulations. Synthetic meteorological drivers that highlight dynamic features of the short temporal scale in series of precipitation, temperature, and radiation are constructed. These drivers force a mechanistic ecohydrological model that propagates information content into the dynamics of water and carbon fluxes for an ensemble of representative ecosystems. The focus of the analysis is on a cross-scale effect of the short-scale forcing variability on the modeled evapotranspiration and ecosystem carbon assimilation. Interannual variability of water and carbon fluxes is emphasized in the analysis. The main study inferences are summarized as follows: (a) short-scale variability of meteorological input does affect water and carbon fluxes across a wide range of time scales, spanning from the hourly to the annual and longer scales; (b) different ecosystems respond to the various characteristics of the short-scale variability of the climate forcing in various ways, depending on dominant factors limiting system productivity; (c) whenever short-scale variability of meteorological forcing influences primarily fast processes such as photosynthesis, its impact on the slow-scale variability of water and carbon fluxes is small; and (d) whenever short-scale variability of the meteorological forcing impacts slow processes such as movement and storage of water in the soil, the effects of the variability can propagate to annual and longer time scales.

[1]  A. Huete,et al.  Amazon Forests Green-Up During 2005 Drought , 2007, Science.

[2]  Andrew E. Suyker,et al.  Characterizing the performance of ecosystem models across time scales: A spectral analysis of the North American Carbon Program site-level synthesis , 2011, Journal of Geophysical Research.

[3]  W. Pockman,et al.  Precipitation pulses and carbon fluxes in semiarid and arid ecosystems , 2004, Oecologia.

[4]  Fubao Sun,et al.  Changes in the variability of global land precipitation , 2012 .

[5]  A. Challinor,et al.  Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review , 2014, Global change biology.

[6]  Pamela L. Nagler,et al.  Relationship between evapotranspiration and precipitation pulses in a semiarid rangeland estimated by moisture flux towers and MODIS vegetation indices , 2007 .

[7]  R. B. Jackson,et al.  Fine root dynamics in a loblolly pine forest are influenced by free‐air‐CO2‐enrichment: a six‐year‐minirhizotron study , 2008 .

[8]  P. Burlando,et al.  The role of local‐scale heterogeneities in terrestrial ecosystem modeling , 2015 .

[9]  P. Burlando,et al.  Diurnal and seasonal changes in near‐surface humidity in a complex orography , 2015 .

[10]  Philippe Ciais,et al.  Site‐ and species‐specific responses of forest growth to climate across the European continent , 2013 .

[11]  J. Fuhrer,et al.  Ecohydrological effects of management on subalpine grasslands: From local to catchment scale , 2014 .

[12]  M. S. Moran,et al.  Long‐term meteorological and soil hydrology database, Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed, Arizona, United States , 2008 .

[13]  J. Peñuelas,et al.  Responses of terrestrial ecosystems to temperature and precipitation change: a meta‐analysis of experimental manipulation , 2011 .

[14]  A. Knapp,et al.  Intra‐seasonal precipitation patterns and above‐ground productivity in three perennial grasslands , 2007 .

[15]  E. Davidson,et al.  The role of deep roots in the hydrological and carbon cycles of Amazonian forests and pastures , 1994, Nature.

[16]  Thomas R. Karl,et al.  Trends in high-frequency climate variability in the twentieth century , 1995, Nature.

[17]  Luca Ridolfi,et al.  Plants in water-controlled ecosystems: active role in hydrologic processes and response to water stress: I. Scope and general outline , 2001 .

[18]  Peter Molnar,et al.  On the effects of small scale space–time variability of rainfall on basin flood response , 2014 .

[19]  Praveen Kumar,et al.  A model for hydraulic redistribution incorporating coupled soil-root moisture transport , 2007 .

[20]  Tim R. McVicar,et al.  On the importance of including vegetation dynamics in Budyko's hydrological model , 2006 .

[21]  Alan K. Knapp,et al.  Altering Rainfall Timing and Quantity in a Mesic Grassland Ecosystem: Design and Performance of Rainfall Manipulation Shelters , 2000, Ecosystems.

[22]  Martin Wild,et al.  Trends in aerosol radiative effects over Europe inferred from observed cloud cover, solar “dimming,” and solar “brightening” , 2007 .

[23]  Alan Basist,et al.  Diurnal and seasonal cycles of trends of surface air temperature , 2002 .

[24]  Paul R Moorcroft,et al.  How close are we to a predictive science of the biosphere? , 2006, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[25]  Debra P C Peters,et al.  Precipitation legacies in desert grassland primary production occur through previous-year tiller density. , 2013, Ecology.

[26]  K. Wilson,et al.  A spectral analysis of biosphere-atmosphere trace gas flux densities and meteorological variables across hour to multi-year time scales , 2000 .

[27]  Y. Luo,et al.  Changes in microclimate induced by experimental warming and clipping in tallgrass prairie , 2002 .

[28]  V. Ivanov,et al.  Simulation of future climate scenarios with a weather generator , 2011 .

[29]  L. Z. Allen,et al.  How extreme is extreme? , 2015 .

[30]  P. O'Gorman,et al.  The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[31]  Valeriy Y. Ivanov,et al.  Interannual variability of evapotranspiration and vegetation productivity , 2014 .

[32]  Modelling the Space-Time Structure of Precipitation and its Impact on Basin Response , 2013 .

[33]  J. Deardorff Efficient prediction of ground surface temperature and moisture, with inclusion of a layer of vegetation , 1978 .

[34]  C. Torrence,et al.  A Practical Guide to Wavelet Analysis. , 1998 .

[35]  Atul K. Jain,et al.  Overview of the large-scale biosphere–atmosphere experiment in Amazonia data model intercomparison project (LBA-DMIP) , 2013 .

[36]  Tod A. Laursen,et al.  Finite element tree crown hydrodynamics model (FETCH) using porous media flow within branching elements: A new representation of tree hydrodynamics , 2005 .

[37]  Enrique R. Vivoni,et al.  Vegetation‐hydrology dynamics in complex terrain of semiarid areas: 1. A mechanistic approach to modeling dynamic feedbacks , 2008 .

[38]  S. Solomon,et al.  How Often Will It Rain , 2005 .

[39]  S. Wofsy,et al.  Responses of terrestrial ecosystems and carbon budgets to current and future environmental variability , 2010, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[40]  M. Caldwell,et al.  Competing root systems: morphology and models of absorption , 1986 .

[41]  Christian Körner,et al.  Moving beyond photosynthesis: from carbon source to sink-driven vegetation modeling. , 2014, The New phytologist.

[42]  Demetris Koutsoyiannis,et al.  How extreme is extreme? An assessment of daily rainfall distribution tails , 2012 .

[43]  G. Katu Contrasting responses to drought of forest floor CO 2 efflux in a Loblolly pine plantation and a nearby Oak-Hickory forest , 2005 .

[44]  S. Wofsy,et al.  What drives the seasonality of photosynthesis across the Amazon basin? A cross-site analysis of eddy flux tower measurements from the Brasil flux network , 2013 .

[45]  I. C. Prentice,et al.  A dynamic global vegetation model for studies of the coupled atmosphere‐biosphere system , 2005 .

[46]  K.,et al.  Carbon–Concentration and Carbon–Climate Feedbacks in CMIP5 Earth System Models , 2012 .

[47]  Chonggang Xu,et al.  Our limited ability to predict vegetation dynamics under water stress. , 2013, The New phytologist.

[48]  Frank Berninger,et al.  Carbon balance of different aged Scots pine forests in Southern Finland , 2004 .

[49]  C. Williams,et al.  Complexity in water and carbon dioxide fluxes following rain pulses in an African savanna , 2009, Oecologia.

[50]  V. Ivanov,et al.  A mechanistic ecohydrological model to investigate complex interactions in cold and warm water‐controlled environments: 2. Spatiotemporal analyses , 2012 .

[51]  W. Oechel,et al.  Energy balance closure at FLUXNET sites , 2002 .

[52]  Pierre Friedlingstein,et al.  Uncertainties in CMIP5 Climate Projections due to Carbon Cycle Feedbacks , 2014 .

[53]  D. Randall,et al.  A Revised Land Surface Parameterization (SiB2) for Atmospheric GCMS. Part I: Model Formulation , 1996 .

[54]  G. Katul,et al.  Tree root systems competing for soil moisture in a 3D soil–plant model , 2014 .

[55]  S. Wofsy,et al.  Root niche separation can explain avoidance of seasonal drought stress and vulnerability of overstory trees to extended drought in a mature Amazonian forest , 2012 .

[56]  Eric F. Wood,et al.  Vegetation control on water and energy balance within the Budyko framework , 2013 .

[57]  Ronald P. Neilson,et al.  Global patterns in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change. , 2010 .

[58]  Robert F. Adler,et al.  Precipitation and Temperature Variations on the Interannual Time Scale: Assessing the Impact of ENSO and Volcanic Eruptions , 2011 .

[59]  Peter S. Eagleson,et al.  Climate, soil, and vegetation: 1. Introduction to water balance dynamics , 1978 .

[60]  T. Vesala,et al.  Deriving a light use efficiency model from eddy covariance flux data for predicting daily gross primary production across biomes , 2007 .

[61]  Inez Y. Fung,et al.  A mechanism for the influence of vegetation on the response of the diurnal temperature range to changing climate , 2000 .

[62]  Enrica Caporali,et al.  A mechanistic ecohydrological model to investigate complex interactions in cold and warm water‐controlled environments: 1. Theoretical framework and plot‐scale analysis , 2012 .

[63]  J. L. Cullen,et al.  A 0.5-million-year record of millennial-scale climate variability in the north atlantic , 1999, Science.

[64]  P. Hari,et al.  Seasonal patterns of soil CO2 efflux and soil air CO2 concentration in a Scots pine forest: comparison of two chamber techniques , 2003 .

[65]  Jerry C. Ritchie,et al.  Patterns of Soil Erosion and Redeposition on Lucky Hills Watershed, Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed, Arizona , 2005 .

[66]  Scott M. Devine,et al.  Soil moisture depletion under simulated drought in the Amazon: impacts on deep root uptake. , 2010, The New phytologist.

[67]  A. Porporato,et al.  Climatic, ecophysiological, and phenological controls on plant ecohydrological strategies in seasonally dry ecosystems , 2015 .

[68]  W. Oechel,et al.  FLUXNET: A New Tool to Study the Temporal and Spatial Variability of Ecosystem-Scale Carbon Dioxide, Water Vapor, and Energy Flux Densities , 2001 .

[69]  M. Loik,et al.  A multi-scale perspective of water pulses in dryland ecosystems: climatology and ecohydrology of the western USA , 2004, Oecologia.

[70]  Dennis D. Baldocchi,et al.  Seasonal and interannual variability of energy fluxes over a broadleaved temperate deciduous forest in North America , 2000 .

[71]  Stephen S. O. Burgess,et al.  Hydraulic redistribution in three Amazonian trees , 2005, Oecologia.

[72]  Yiqi Luo,et al.  Changes in microclimate induced by experimental warming and clipping in tallgrass prairie , 2002 .

[73]  Jens Kattge,et al.  Temperature acclimation in a biochemical model of photosynthesis: a reanalysis of data from 36 species. , 2007, Plant, cell & environment.

[74]  Kenneth G. Renard,et al.  A brief background on the U.S. Department of Agriculture Agricultural Research Service Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed , 2008 .

[75]  G. Katul,et al.  Contrasting responses to drought of forest floor CO2 efflux in a Loblolly pine plantation and a nearby Oak‐Hickory forest , 2005 .

[76]  P. Hanson,et al.  Effects of altered water regimes on forest root systems , 2000 .

[77]  J. Zak,et al.  Convergence across biomes to a common rain-use efficiency , 2004, Nature.

[78]  K. Pregitzer,et al.  The demography of fine roots in response to patches of water and nitrogen. , 1993, The New phytologist.

[79]  I. Rodríguez‐Iturbe,et al.  Coupled Dynamics of Photosynthesis, Transpiration, and Soil Water Balance. Part I: Upscaling from Hourly to Daily Level , 2004 .

[80]  G. Katul,et al.  Radiative and precipitation controls on root zone soil moisture spectra , 2014 .

[81]  K. Oleson,et al.  Reconciling leaf physiological traits and canopy flux data: Use of the TRY and FLUXNET databases in the Community Land Model version 4 , 2012 .

[82]  Brani Vidakovic,et al.  Multiscale analysis of vegetation surface fluxes: from seconds to years , 2001 .

[83]  David Medvigy,et al.  Trends in Daily Solar Radiation and Precipitation Coefficients of Variation since 1984 , 2012 .

[84]  Meghan L. Avolio,et al.  Toward a better integration of biological data from precipitation manipulation experiments into Earth system models , 2014 .

[85]  B. Soden,et al.  Atmospheric Warming and the Amplification of Precipitation Extremes , 2008, Science.

[86]  T. A. Black,et al.  Evaluating the agreement between measurements and models of net ecosystem exchange at different times and timescales using wavelet coherence: an example using data from the North American Carbon Program Site-Level Interim Synthesis , 2013 .

[87]  Han Y. H. Chen,et al.  Fine Root Biomass, Production, Turnover Rates, and Nutrient Contents in Boreal Forest Ecosystems in Relation to Species, Climate, Fertility, and Stand Age: Literature Review and Meta-Analyses , 2010 .

[88]  G. Katul,et al.  On the complementary relationship between marginal nitrogen and water-use efficiencies among Pinus taeda leaves grown under ambient and CO2-enriched environments. , 2013, Annals of botany.

[89]  Impact of climate variability on the vegetation water stress , 2000 .

[90]  A. Porporato,et al.  Soil Moisture Feedbacks on Convection Triggers: The Role of Soil-Plant Hydrodynamics , 2008 .

[91]  The Modeling of Hydrological Cycle and its Interaction with Vegetation in the Framework of Climate Change , 2010 .

[92]  H. Tian,et al.  Effect of interannual climate variability on carbon storage in Amazonian ecosystems , 1998, Nature.

[93]  Pavel Kabat,et al.  Comparative measurements of carbon dioxide fluxes from two nearby towers in a central Amazonian rainforest: the Manaus LBA site , 2002 .

[94]  P. Ciais,et al.  Asymmetric effects of daytime and night-time warming on Northern Hemisphere vegetation , 2013, Nature.

[95]  Robert E. Dickinson,et al.  A Two-Big-Leaf Model for Canopy Temperature, Photosynthesis, and Stomatal Conductance , 2004 .

[96]  F. Zwiers,et al.  Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble , 2013, Climatic Change.

[97]  A. Knapp,et al.  Variation among biomes in temporal dynamics of aboveground primary production. , 2001, Science.

[98]  J. Randerson,et al.  Changes in soil organic carbon storage predicted by Earth system models during the 21st century , 2013 .

[99]  Peter Molnar,et al.  A stochastic model for high‐resolution space‐time precipitation simulation , 2013 .

[100]  C. Körner Paradigm shift in plant growth control. , 2015, Current opinion in plant biology.

[101]  Jehn-Yih Juang,et al.  Are ecosystem carbon inputs and outputs coupled at short time scales? A case study from adjacent pine and hardwood forests using impulse-response analysis. , 2007, Plant, cell & environment.

[102]  Zong-Liang Yang,et al.  Technical description of version 4.5 of the Community Land Model (CLM) , 2013 .

[103]  W. James Shuttleworth,et al.  Modeling multiyear observations of soil moisture recharge in the semiarid American Southwest , 2000 .

[104]  D. Roy,et al.  Large seasonal swings in leaf area of Amazon rainforests , 2007, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[105]  Markus Reichstein,et al.  Improving canopy processes in the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) using global flux fields empirically inferred from FLUXNET data , 2011 .

[106]  G. Katul,et al.  Interannual Invariability of Forest Evapotranspiration and Its Consequence to Water Flow Downstream , 2010, Ecosystems.

[107]  Miikka Dal Maso,et al.  Long-term measurements of surface fluxes above a Scots pine forest in Hyytiälä, southern Finland, 1996-2001 , 2003 .

[108]  Stefan Hergarten,et al.  On a better understanding of hydraulic lift: A numerical study , 2002 .

[109]  Gil Bohrer,et al.  Sustained carbon uptake and storage following moderate disturbance in a Great Lakes forest. , 2013, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[110]  S. Asseng,et al.  The impact of temperature variability on wheat yields , 2011 .

[111]  A. Porporato,et al.  Spring frost risk in a changing climate , 2008 .

[112]  I. Noy-Meir,et al.  Desert Ecosystems: Environment and Producers , 1973 .

[113]  G. Katul,et al.  Soil fertility limits carbon sequestration by forest ecosystems in a CO2-enriched atmosphere , 2001, Nature.

[114]  I. Rodríguez‐Iturbe,et al.  Soil Water Balance and Ecosystem Response to Climate Change , 2004, The American Naturalist.

[115]  S. Seneviratne,et al.  Climate extremes and the carbon cycle , 2013, Nature.

[116]  Annett Wolf,et al.  Sensitivity analysis of a process‐based ecosystem model: Pinpointing parameterization and structural issues , 2013 .

[117]  Jehn-Yih Juang,et al.  Separating the effects of climate and vegetation on evapotranspiration along a successional chronosequence in the southeastern US , 2006 .

[118]  Luca Ridolfi,et al.  Plants in water-controlled ecosystems: active role in hydrologic processes and response to water stress: II. Probabilistic soil moisture dynamics , 2001 .

[119]  G. Katul,et al.  Root controls on water redistribution and carbon uptake in the soil–plant system under current and future climate , 2013 .

[120]  J. Berry,et al.  A biochemical model of photosynthetic CO2 assimilation in leaves of C3 species , 1980, Planta.

[121]  Peter A. Troch,et al.  Hysteresis of soil moisture spatial heterogeneity and the “homogenizing” effect of vegetation , 2009 .

[122]  Jehn-Yih Juang,et al.  On the spectrum of soil moisture from hourly to interannual scales , 2007 .

[123]  Z. Cardon,et al.  The magnitude of hydraulic redistribution by plant roots: a review and synthesis of empirical and modeling studies. , 2012, The New phytologist.

[124]  Peter A. Troch,et al.  Quantifying regional scale ecosystem response to changes in precipitation: Not all rain is created equal , 2011 .

[125]  M. G. Ryan,et al.  Evaluating theories of drought-induced vegetation mortality using a multimodel-experiment framework. , 2013, The New phytologist.

[126]  Peter Molnar,et al.  On temporal stochastic modeling of precipitation, nesting models across scales , 2014 .

[127]  C. Long,et al.  From Dimming to Brightening: Decadal Changes in Solar Radiation at Earth's Surface , 2005, Science.

[128]  A. Knapp,et al.  Increasing precipitation event size increases aboveground net primary productivity in a semi-arid grassland , 2008, Oecologia.

[129]  L. Gu,et al.  The many meanings of gross photosynthesis and their implication for photosynthesis research from leaf to globe , 2015, Plant, cell & environment.

[130]  P. Yiou,et al.  Projected increase in diurnal and interdiurnal variations of European summer temperatures , 2014 .

[131]  H. Schmid,et al.  Controls on Annual Forest Carbon Storage: Lessons from the Past and Predictions for the Future , 2008 .

[132]  P. Ciais,et al.  Terrestrial carbon cycle affected by non-uniform climate warming , 2014 .

[133]  C. Justice,et al.  A Revised Land Surface Parameterization (SiB2) for Atmospheric GCMS. Part II: The Generation of Global Fields of Terrestrial Biophysical Parameters from Satellite Data , 1996 .

[134]  G. Collatz,et al.  Physiological and environmental regulation of stomatal conductance, photosynthesis and transpiration: a model that includes a laminar boundary layer , 1991 .

[135]  F. Woodward,et al.  Assessing uncertainties in a second-generation dynamic vegetation model caused by ecological scale limitations. , 2010, The New phytologist.

[136]  L. Merbold,et al.  Experiments to confront the environmental extremes of climate change , 2015 .

[137]  D. Baldocchi,et al.  Frontiers and challenges in soil respiration research: from measurements to model-data integration , 2011 .

[138]  C. Peng,et al.  Interannual variability in net primary production and precipitation. , 2001, Science.

[139]  G. Bonan Forests and Climate Change: Forcings, Feedbacks, and the Climate Benefits of Forests , 2008, Science.

[140]  G. Boer,et al.  Changes in Interannual Variability and Decadal Potential Predictability under Global Warming , 2009 .

[141]  Markus Reichstein,et al.  Consequences of More Extreme Precipitation Regimes for Terrestrial Ecosystems , 2008 .

[142]  I. C. Prentice,et al.  BIOME3: An equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model based on ecophysiological constraints, resource availability, and competition among plant functional types , 1996 .

[143]  Alan K. Knapp,et al.  Relative effects of precipitation variability and warming on tallgrass prairie ecosystem function , 2011 .

[144]  S S I T C H,et al.  Evaluation of Ecosystem Dynamics, Plant Geography and Terrestrial Carbon Cycling in the Lpj Dynamic Global Vegetation Model , 2022 .

[145]  Christian Körner,et al.  Responses of Humid Tropical Trees to Rising CO2 , 2009 .

[146]  R. Dickinson,et al.  Modeling hydraulic redistribution and ecosystem response to droughts over the Amazon basin using Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) , 2014 .

[147]  M. Keller,et al.  Carbon in Amazon Forests: Unexpected Seasonal Fluxes and Disturbance-Induced Losses , 2003, Science.

[148]  S. Wofsy,et al.  Seasonal carbon dynamics and water fluxes in an Amazon rainforest , 2012 .

[149]  Amilcare Porporato,et al.  Stochastic Dynamics of Plant-Water Interactions , 2007 .

[150]  I. C. Prentice,et al.  Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate‐carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) , 2008 .

[151]  C. Beierkuhnlein,et al.  A new generation of climate‐change experiments: events, not trends , 2007 .

[152]  I. Janssens,et al.  Climatic characteristics of heat waves and their simulation in plant experiments , 2010 .

[153]  M. Moghaddam,et al.  Temporal dynamics of soil moisture in a northern temperate mixed successional forest after a prescribed intermediate disturbance , 2013 .

[154]  H. Schmid,et al.  Respiratory carbon losses and the carbon-use efficiency of a northern hardwood forest, 1999-2003. , 2005, The New phytologist.

[155]  Debra P. C. Peters,et al.  Climatic variation and simulated patterns in seedling establishment of two dominant grasses at a semi‐arid‐arid grassland ecotone , 2000 .

[156]  Allison L. Dunn,et al.  Seasonal controls on the exchange of carbon and water in an Amazonian rain forest , 2007 .

[157]  S. Fatichi,et al.  Reconciling observations with modeling: The fate of water and carbon allocation in a mature deciduous forest exposed to elevated CO2 , 2013 .

[158]  A. Porporato,et al.  Revisiting rainfall clustering and intermittency across different climatic regimes , 2009 .