An ontology-based methodology for hazard identification and causation analysis

Abstract This article presents a dynamic hazard identification methodology founded on an ontology-based knowledge modeling framework coupled with probabilistic assessment. The objective is to develop an efficient and effective knowledge-based tool for process industries to screen hazards and conduct rapid risk estimation. The proposed generic model can translate an undesired process event (state of the process) into a graphical model, demonstrating potential pathways to the process event, linking causation to the transition of states. The Semantic web-based Web Ontology Language (OWL) is used to capture knowledge about unwanted process events. The resulting knowledge model is then transformed into Probabilistic-OWL (PR-OWL) based Multi-Entity Bayesian Network (MEBN). Upon queries, the MEBNs produce Situation Specific Bayesian Networks (SSBN) to identify hazards and their pathways along with probabilities. Two open-source software programs, Protege and UnBBayes, are used. The developed model is validated against 45 industrial accidental events extracted from the U.S. Chemical Safety Board's (CSB) database. The model is further extended to conduct causality analysis.

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