Non-peer reviewed preprint submitted to EarthArXiv

8 The shift from coal to natural gas (NG) in the power sector has led to significant reductions in 9 carbon emissions, earning NG the moniker of a bridge-fuel. The cheap NG that led to this shift is 10 now fueling a global expansion in liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure, particularly in the 11 US, Canada, and Australia. In this work, we assess the viability of LNG expansion in reducing 12 global carbon emissions through coal-to-gas switching in the power sector. In the near term (pre13 2030), coal-to-gas substitution reduces global carbon emissions across all temperature targets – 14 here, the potential for emissions reductions through coal-to-gas switching is ‘LNG-limited’, where 15 there is significantly more coal power generation than the LNG required to substitute it. However, 16 we find that long-term planned LNG expansion is not compatible with the Paris climate targets of 17 1.5oC or 2oC – here, the potential for emissions reductions through coal-to-gas switching is ‘coal18 limited’. The rapid decline in the share of coal power globally limits the potential for coal to gas 19 substitution. In all scenarios analyzed, low upstream methane leakage and significant coal-to-gas 20 substitution are critical to realizing the near-term climate benefits of LNG. Investors and 21 governments should consider stranded risk assets associated with potentially shorter lifetimes of 22 LNG infrastructure in a Paris-compatible world. 23