Forecasting electricity price and demand using a hybrid approach based on wavelet transform, ARIMA and neural networks

SUMMARY Demand and price forecasting are extremely important for participants in energy markets. Most research work in the area predicts demand and price signals separately. In this paper, a model is presented which predicts electricity demand and price simultaneously. The model combines wavelet transforms, ARIMA models and neural networks. Both time domain and wavelet domain variables are considered in the feature set for price and demand forecasting. The best input set is selected by two-step correlation analysis. The proposed model is better adapted to real conditions of an energy market since the forecast features for price and demand are not assumed as known values but are predicted by the model, thus accounting for the interactions of the demand and price forecast processes. The forecast accuracy of the proposed method is evaluated using data from the Finnish energy market, which is part of the Nordic Power Pool. The results show that the proposed model provides significant improvement in both demand and price prediction accuracy compared with models using a separate frameworks approach. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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