The COVID‐19 pandemic and trade in agricultural products

Abstract In this study, we develop a structural gravity model to analyse the effects of the ongoing COVID‐19 pandemic on international trade in food and agriculture. Using detailed data on trade flows, we estimate the trade impacts of the pandemic for major sectors in food and agriculture. Supply‐side impacts on trade caused by reductions in labour tend to be largest in labour‐intensive sectors such as meat processing and processed fruit and vegetables. The supply‐side export effects are dwarfed by the demand‐side import effects, as the recessionary impact of the pandemic drives significant decreases in imports, largely in processed goods and labour‐intensive commodities.