Benefits Estimation Framework for Automated Vehicle Operations

Automated vehicles have the potential to bring about transformative safety, mobility, energy, and environmental benefits to the surface transportation system. They are also being introduced into a complex transportation system, where second-order impacts, such as the possibility of increased vehicle-miles traveled, are of significant concern. Given the complexity of the impacts, a modeling framework is needed to ensure that they are adequately captured. This report presents a framework for estimating the potential benefits and dis-benefits of technologies contributing to the automation of the Nation’s surface transportation system. Components of the framework include (1) Safety: exposure to near-crash situations, crash prevention, and crash severity reduction; (2) Vehicle mobility: vehicle throughput, both in car following situations and at intersections; (3) Energy / environment: fuel consumption and tailpipe emissions; (4) Accessibility: personal mobility, for motorists and nonmotorists; (5) Transportation system usage: response of travelers to changes in mobility and accessibility, as well as potential new modes of transportation such as increased car sharing; (6) Land use: effects of automation on land use, and (7) Economic analysis: the macro-economic impacts of all of the above changes.

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