OVERSTATED SAFETY BELT USE RATES--EVIDENCE, CONSEQUENCES, AND REMEDIES

This paper deals with issues arising from inflated values of safety belt (SB) use and addresses and evaluates data leading to strong evidence that SB use rates, as reported in crash records, are inflated irrespective of reasons. Equally strong evidence is found that SB use inflation introduces significant distortions in the estimation of casualty rates, and of the effectiveness of various restraints. The cited effects are demonstrated both analytically and by review of crash records. No solution is yet at hand for controlling the cited distortions. However, a heuristically determined blanket deflation appears to rectify most of the ill effects of SB use inflation. It also seems that blanket remedies for SB use inflation, intended to cure inflated values of restraint effectiveness, may introduce adverse side effects on the cited effectiveness. It appears that an appropriate deflation approach may be a function of restraint type, calendar year, vehicle class and model year, and many other vehicle and occupant characteristics. The study presented herein is based on the crash records of NHTSA's National Accident Sampling System in 1988 to 1996, and NHTSA's National Occupant Protection Use Survey in 1994 and 1996.