Innovative Methods for Terrorism and Counterterrorism Data

In order to assess the effectiveness of counter-terrorism interventions, terrorism must First be quantitatively measured and appropriate statistical tests developed. By combining aspects of both the frequency and impact of terrorist attacks, we describe how a marked point process framework can establish a comprehensive measure of terrorism. In addition, we show how change point analysis can provide a powerful alternative to intervention analysis in assessing the effectiveness of counter-terrorism efforts. This is illustrated by examining the in uence Detachment 88, a specialized counter-terrorism unit, had on the terrorism process in Indonesia.

[1]  Andrew H. Chen,et al.  The effects of terrorism on global capital markets , 2004 .

[2]  A. Clauset,et al.  On the Frequency of Severe Terrorist Events , 2006, physics/0606007.

[3]  Gary LaFree,et al.  Introducing the Global Terrorism Database , 2007 .

[4]  Walter Enders,et al.  The Effectiveness of Antiterrorism Policies: A Vector-Autoregression-Intervention Analysis , 1993, American Political Science Review.

[5]  Counting the Cost of the Intifada: Consumption, Saving and Political Instability in Israel , 2003 .

[6]  Alois Stutzer,et al.  Calculating Tragedy: Assessing the Costs of Terrorism , 2004, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[7]  David R. Cox,et al.  Regression models and life tables (with discussion , 1972 .

[8]  Laura Dugan,et al.  Estimating Effects over Time for Single and Multiple Units , 2010 .

[9]  George E. P. Box,et al.  Intervention Analysis with Applications to Economic and Environmental Problems , 1975 .

[10]  T. Sandler,et al.  The Political Economy of Terrorism: The Economic Impact of Transnational Terrorism , 2005 .

[11]  Gary LaFree,et al.  THE IMPACT OF BRITISH COUNTERTERRORIST STRATEGIES ON POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN NORTHERN IRELAND: COMPARING DETERRENCE AND BACKLASH MODELS* , 2009 .

[12]  Alex R. Piquero,et al.  Testing a rational choice model of airline hijackings , 2005 .

[13]  Carlos Pestana Barros,et al.  An intervention analysis of terrorism: The spanish eta case , 2003 .

[14]  Alex R. Piquero,et al.  Handbook of Quantitative Criminology , 2010 .

[15]  Alberto Abadie,et al.  The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the , 2003 .

[16]  P. McCullagh,et al.  Generalized Linear Models , 1992 .

[17]  P. Collier.  On the economic consequences of civil war , 1999 .

[18]  Michèle Basseville,et al.  Detection of abrupt changes: theory and application , 1993 .

[19]  T. Sandler,et al.  Is Transnational Terrorism Becoming More Threatening? , 2000 .

[20]  Daryl J. Daley,et al.  An Introduction to the Theory of Point Processes , 2013 .

[21]  Emery N. Brown,et al.  Computational Neuroscience: A Comprehensive Approach , 2022 .

[22]  Walter Enders,et al.  Patterns of Transnational Terrorism, 1970–1999: Alternative Time-Series Estimates , 2002, Transnational Terrorism.

[23]  Walter Enders,et al.  Causality between transnational terrorism and tourism: The case of Spain , 1991 .

[24]  S. T. Buckland,et al.  An Introduction to the Bootstrap. , 1994 .

[25]  J. Rice.  On generalized shot noise , 1977, Advances in Applied Probability.

[26]  R. Perl,et al.  Combating Terrorism: The Challenge of Measuring Effectiveness , 2007 .

[27]  D. McDowall,et al.  Interrupted Time Series Analysis , 1980 .