Experiments with an “intelligent” world model

Abstract This article deals with two of the major shortcomings of systems simulation studies for policy development : their failure to account for cognitive processes, and their usual neglect of normative criteria and the changes in these criteria. Within the framework of concept-processing and orientation theory, a formalised description of the process of state analysis by an “orientation module” is developed. In this process, current and likely future system states are projected (by a cognitive mapping process) on the system's orientors (in this case existence needs, security, freedom of action, adaptivity, and effectiveness). This assessment provides the inputs for policy development. The interactive approach uses Forrester's World 2. The orientation module not only prevents the preprogrammed “pollution crisis” from occurring, but also leads to policies producing very satisfactory overall results, provided the planning horizon and the control sensitivity are sufficiently large. The results show that orientation modules can ensure “intelligent” behaviour of simulation models and can make computer-assisted policy development much more efficient.