International Freight and Related CO2 Emissions by 2050: A New Modelling Tool

International trade has grown rapidly in the post-war era with trade volume growing twenty-seven fold between 1950 and 2007, three times faster than world GDP growth (WTO, 2007). Growth in trade is expected to outpace the GDP growth also over the next 50 years, according to recent OECD projections. The value of international trade is estimated to grow by a factor of four by 2050 in real terms (Fontagne et al., 2014). Trade patterns will however change due to fragmentation of production processes and integration of emerging markets into global markets. Trade liberalisation, either at global or regional level, will also have an impact on global patterns.