Probabilistic characterization of the effect of transient stochastic loads on the fatigue-crack nucleation time

The rainflow counting algorithm for material fatigue is both simple to implement and extraordinarily successful for predicting material failure times. However, it neglects memory effects and time-ordering dependence, and therefore runs into difficulties dealing with highly intermittent or transient stochastic loads with heavy tailed distributions. Such loads appear frequently in a wide range of applications in ocean and mechanical engineering, such as wind turbines and offshore structures. In this work we employ the Serebrinsky-Ortiz cohesive envelope model for material fatigue to characterize the effects of load intermittency on the fatigue-crack nucleation time. We first formulate efficient numerical integration schemes, which allow for the direct characterization of the fatigue life in terms of any given load time-series. Subsequently, we consider the case of stochastic intermittent loads with given statistical characteristics. To overcome the need for expensive Monte-Carlo simulations, we formulate the fatigue life as an up-crossing problem of the coherent envelope. Assuming statistical independence for the large intermittent spikes and using probabilistic arguments we derive closed expressions for the up-crossing properties of the coherent envelope and obtain analytical approximations for the probability mass function of the failure time. The analytical expressions are derived directly in terms of the probability density function of the load, as well as the coherent envelope. We examine the accuracy of the analytical approximations and compare the predicted failure time with the standard rainflow algorithm for various loads. Finally, we use the analytical expressions to examine the robustness of the derived probability distribution for the failure time with respect to the coherent envelope geometrical properties.

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