REGRESSION ESTIMATION OF EVENT PROBABILITIES

Abstract : MDA (multiple discriminant analysis) has been found useful in predicting the probability of operationally critical airfield ceiling and visibility conditions. One part of the discriminant procedure requires at the outset a rather lengthy computation by machine to estimate these probabilities. While the operational use of the method takes much less effort, the time needed initially on a large scale computer may be inordinate when many elements, time periods, and geographical locations are being considered. This report discusses a prediction technique, REEP (regression estimation of event probabilities), which resulted from attempts to make MDA more efficient. Comparative studies between REEP and MDA are included as well as other experimentations performed using the REEP procedure. Recommendations for future work on the technique are also given.