Major PM10 source location by a spatial multivariate receptor model

We present a multivariate receptor model for identifying the spatial location of major PM10 pollution sources through the concentrations at multiple monitoring stations. We build on a mixed multiplicative log-normal factor model adjusting the source contributions for meteorological covariates and for temporal correlation and considering source profiles as compositional Gaussian random fields, to account for the variability induced by the spatial distribution of the monitoring sites. Taking a Bayesian approach to estimation, the proposed hierarchical model is implemented and used to analyze average daily PM10 concentration measurements from 13 monitoring sites in Taranto, Italy, for the period April–December 2005. Three major sources of pollution are identified and characterized in terms of their spatial and temporal behavior and in relation to meteorological data.

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