Assessing deforestation susceptibility to forest ecosystem in Rudraprayag district, India using fragmentation approach and frequency ratio model.

This study aimed to model deforestation susceptibility in forest ecosystem of Rudraprayag district, India. For this purpose, site-specific physical (slope angle, slope aspect, altitude, annual average rainfall, soil texture, soil depth), and anthropogenic (population distribution, distance from road, distance from settlement, proximity to agricultural land) deforestation conditioning factors were chosen. Landsat TM and OLI images for 1990 and 2015 were utilized to evaluate the changes in forest cover. The frequency ratio model was used for deforestation susceptibility mapping. The extent of deforestation was examined by overlaying forest fragmentation map and deforestation susceptibility map. The results showed that about 112.5km2 forest area has been deforested over the last 25years. Of the total existing forest, nearly 10% area falls under very high, 17% under high and 30% under moderate deforestation susceptibility categories. Patch, edge and perforated have influenced high (64%) and very high (81%) deforestation susceptibility zones. The integrated methodology involving frequency ratio model, fragmentation approach and remote sensing and GIS techniques has proved useful in analyzing deforestation susceptibility and identifying its causative factors. Thus, the methodology adopted in this study can best be utilized for effective planning and management of forest ecosystem.

[1]  Andrew V. Bradley,et al.  Scale dependence in multitemporal mapping of forest fragmentation in Bolivia: implications for explaining temporal trends in landscape ecology and applications to biodiversity conservation , 2003 .

[2]  J. Sendra,et al.  Exploring the driving forces behind deforestation in the state of Mexico (Mexico) using geographically weighted regression , 2010 .

[3]  William B. Meyer,et al.  HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH AND GLOBAL LAND-USE/COVER CHANGE , 1992 .

[4]  Robert J. Smith,et al.  Mapping and predicting deforestation patterns in the lowlands of Sumatra , 2004, Biodiversity & Conservation.

[5]  R. G. Pontius,et al.  Detecting important categorical land changes while accounting for persistence , 2004 .

[6]  Pawan Kumar Joshi,et al.  A landscape approach for quantifying land-use and land-cover change (1976–2006) in middle Himalaya , 2010 .

[7]  S. Arekhi Modeling spatial pattern of deforestation using GIS and logistic regression: A case study of northern Ilam forests, Ilam province, Iran , 2011 .

[8]  William J. McConnell,et al.  Physical and social access to land: spatio-temporal patterns of agricultural expansion in Madagascar , 2004 .

[9]  Nobukazu Nakagoshi,et al.  Forest fragmentation and its correlation to human land use change in the state of Selangor, peninsular Malaysia , 2007 .

[10]  K. Otsuki,et al.  Comparison of litterfall production and leaf litter decomposition between an exotic black locust plantation and an indigenous oak forest near Yan’an on the Loess Plateau, China , 2007 .

[11]  E. Somanathan,et al.  How degraded are Himalayan forests , 2006 .

[12]  O. Phillips,et al.  Effect of 7 yr of experimental drought on vegetation dynamics and biomass storage of an eastern Amazonian rainforest. , 2010, The New phytologist.

[13]  E. Somanathan Deforestation, Property Rights and Incentives in Central Himalaya , 2016 .

[14]  H. Nagendra,et al.  Forest fragmentation and regrowth in an institutional mosaic of community, government and private ownership in Nepal , 2007, Landscape Ecology.

[15]  Kumar P. Mainali,et al.  Regeneration of Pinus wallichiana AB Jackson in a trans-Himalayan dry valley of north-central Nepal , 2011 .

[16]  Adrian C. Newton,et al.  How landscapes change: Integration of spatial patterns and human processes in temperate landscapes of southern Chile , 2012 .

[17]  D. B. Chhetri Comparison of Forest Biomass Across a Human-Induced Disturbance Gradient in Nepal's Schima-CastanopsisForests , 1999 .

[18]  P. Jain,et al.  Assessing and monitoring forest health using a forest fragmentation approach in Sariska Tiger Reserve, India , 2016 .

[19]  S. Nandy,et al.  Forest cover dynamics analysis and prediction modeling using logistic regression model , 2014 .

[20]  A. Sinclair,et al.  Measuring the Ecological Footprint of a Himalayan Tourist Center , 2002 .

[21]  D. Bowman,et al.  Vegetation-radiation relationships in the wet-dry tropics: granite hills in northern Australia , 1988, Vegetatio.

[22]  Adrian C. Newton,et al.  Spatially explicit models to analyze forest loss and fragmentation between 1976 and 2020 in southern Chile , 2008 .

[23]  V. Doyuran,et al.  A comparison of the GIS based landslide susceptibility assessment methods: multivariate versus bivariate , 2004 .

[24]  J. Parent,et al.  SIMULATING FUTURE FOREST FRAGMENTATION IN A CONNECTICUT REGION UNDERGOING SUBURBANIZATION , 2007 .

[25]  Lian Pin Koh,et al.  Unreported yet massive deforestation driving loss of endemic biodiversity in Indian Himalaya , 2006, Biodiversity and Conservation.

[26]  Anjali Awasthi,et al.  Forest resource availability and its use by the migratory villages of Uttarkashi, Garhwal Himalaya (India) , 2003 .

[27]  F. Achard,et al.  A Synthesis of Information on Rapid Land-cover Change for the Period 1981–2000 , 2005 .

[28]  P. Roy,et al.  Forest Canopy Density Stratification: How Relevant is Biophysical Spectral Response Modelling Approach? , 2005 .

[29]  B. Mirbagheri,et al.  SPATIAL DEFORESTATION MODELILNG USING CELLULAR AUTOMATA (CASE STUDY: CENTRAL ZAGROS FORESTS) , 2013 .

[30]  James P. Egan,et al.  Signal detection theory and ROC analysis , 1975 .

[31]  Patrick Bogaert,et al.  Spatial analysis and modelling of land use distributions in Belgium , 2007, Comput. Environ. Urban Syst..

[32]  B. Pradhan,et al.  Application of fuzzy logic and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to landslide susceptibility mapping at Haraz watershed, Iran , 2012, Natural Hazards.

[33]  Sanat Kumar Guchhait,et al.  Assessing anthropogenic disturbance on forest health based on fragment grading in Durgapur Forest Range, West Bengal, India , 2017, Spatial Information Research.

[34]  P. White,et al.  Gradient analysis of old spruce – fir forests of the Great Smoky Mountains circa 1935 , 1993 .

[35]  P. Tiwari,et al.  Local and regional institutions and environmental governance in Hindu Kush Himalaya , 2015 .

[36]  Hein A M J van Gils,et al.  What Drives Conversion of Tropical Forest in Carrasco Province, Bolivia? , 2006, Ambio.

[37]  David J. Nowak,et al.  Projected Urban Growth (2000–2050) and Its Estimated Impact on the US Forest Resource , 2005, Journal of Forestry.

[38]  P. G. Murphy,et al.  Ecology of Tropical Dry Forest , 1986 .

[39]  F. Achard,et al.  Determination of Deforestation Rates of the World's Humid Tropical Forests , 2002, Science.

[40]  E. O'Loughlin,et al.  Saturation regions in catchments and their relations to soil and topographic properties , 1981 .

[41]  R. Peet,et al.  Gradient analysis of forests of the Sangre de Cristo Range, Colorado. , 1990 .

[42]  J. Biswas,et al.  Problems of livestock development in the Himalayan region , 1994 .

[43]  H. Nagendra,et al.  Accessibility as a determinant of landscape transformation in western Honduras: linking pattern and process , 2003, Landscape Ecology.

[44]  C. M. Sharma,et al.  Forest Composition in Relation to Socio-economic Status of People at Three High Altitudinal Villages of a Part of Garhwal Himalayas , 2002 .

[45]  Aniruddha Ghosh,et al.  Characterizing fragmentation trends of the Himalayan forests in the Kumaon region of Uttarakhand, India , 2017, Ecol. Informatics.

[46]  Shuang Yang,et al.  Comparative performance of logistic regression and survival analysis for detecting spatial predictors of land-use change , 2013, Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci..

[47]  Maureen L. Cropper,et al.  Predicting the Location of Deforestation: The Role of Roads and Protected Areas in North Thailand , 2001, Land Economics.

[48]  Y. Setiawan,et al.  Spatial Model Approach on Deforestation of Java Island, Indonesia , 2009 .

[49]  R. C. Maggio,et al.  An analysis of anthropogenic deforestation using logistic regression and GIS , 1990 .

[50]  T. Hawbaker,et al.  Effects of roads, topography, and land use on forest cover dynamics in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest , 2010 .

[51]  Elizabeth R. Smith,et al.  Fragmentation of Continental United States Forests , 2002, Ecosystems.

[52]  P. K. Joshi,et al.  Assessing forest fragmentation in northeastern region (NER) of India using landscape matrices , 2008 .

[53]  T. Riutta,et al.  Living on the edge: quantifying the structure of a fragmented forest landscape in England , 2014, Landscape Ecology.

[54]  C. Justice,et al.  MAPPING TROPICAL DEFORESTATION IN CENTRAL AFRICA , 2005, Environmental monitoring and assessment.

[55]  Sunil Nautiyal,et al.  Can conservation and development interventions in the Indian Central Himalaya ensure environmental sustainability? A socioecological evaluation , 2011 .

[56]  M. Sahana,et al.  Driving force for forest fragmentation explored by land use change in Song watershed, India , 2016, Spatial Information Research.

[57]  S. H. S. Jouybari,et al.  DEFORESTATION MODELING AND INVESTIGATION ON RELATED PHYSIOGRAPHIC AND HUMAN FACTORS USING SATELLITE IMAGES AND GIS (CASE STUDY: ARMERDEH FORESTS OF BANEH) , 2008 .

[58]  P. Roy,et al.  Forest fragmentation in the Himalaya: A Central Himalayan case study , 2007 .

[59]  S. Uniyal,et al.  Stratification of forest density and its validation by NDVI analysis in a part of western Himalaya, India using Remote sensing and GIS techniques , 2007 .

[60]  R. Hobbs,et al.  Biological Consequences of Ecosystem Fragmentation: A Review , 1991 .

[61]  R. Zomer,et al.  Feasibility Assessment Report - Kailash Sacred Landscape Conservation Initiative. , 2011 .

[62]  Ángel M. Felicísimo Modeling the Potential Distribution of Forests with a GIS , 2002 .

[63]  V. K. Dadhwal,et al.  Forest degradation assessment in the upper catchment of the river Tons using remote sensing and GIS , 2011 .

[64]  J. Singh,et al.  Man and forests: a central Himalayan case study. , 1984 .

[65]  M. P. Bavaghar Deforestation modelling using logistic regression and GIS , 2016 .

[66]  L. Cayuela,et al.  Clearance and fragmentation of tropical montane forests in the Highlands of Chiapas, Mexico (1975-2000) , 2006 .

[67]  S. Arekhi,et al.  Deforestation modeling using logistic regression and GIS (Case study: Northern Ilam forests, Ilam Province, Iran) , 2012 .

[68]  M. Lawes,et al.  Subsistence harvesting of pole-size understorey species from Ongoye Forest Reserve, South Africa: species preference, harvest intensity, and social correlates. , 2005 .

[69]  R. Pandey,et al.  Anthropogenic disturbances and their impact on vegetation in Western Himalaya, India , 2016, Journal of Mountain Science.

[70]  P. G. Holland,et al.  Vegetational responses to latitudinal variations in slope angle and aspect , 1975 .

[71]  Janet Franklin,et al.  Mapping land-cover modifications over large areas: A comparison of machine learning algorithms , 2008 .

[72]  Mingshi Li,et al.  Comparing forest fragmentation and its drivers in China and the USA with Globcover v2.2. , 2010, Journal of environmental management.

[73]  J. Messina,et al.  Characterizing and Modeling Patterns of Deforestation and Agricultural Extensification in the Ecuadorian Amazon , 2002 .

[74]  Frank P. Day,et al.  Vegetation Patterns on a Southern Appalachian Watershed , 1974 .

[75]  Richard Culas,et al.  Deforestation and the environmental Kuznets curve: An institutional perspective , 2007 .

[76]  Akshay K. Singh,et al.  Litterfall, litter decomposition and nutrient dynamics in a subtropical natural oak forest and managed plantation in northeastern India , 2007 .

[77]  K. Chomitz,et al.  Roads, land use, and deforestation : a spatial model applied to Belize , 1996 .

[78]  J. Ram,et al.  Forest disturbance and its impact on species richness and regeneration of Uttarakhand Himalaya , 2011 .

[79]  S. P. Singh,et al.  Forest vegetation of the Himalaya , 2008, The Botanical Review.

[80]  T. Fredericksen,et al.  Sustainability of timber harvesting in Bolivian tropical forests , 2005 .

[81]  Peter Vogt,et al.  Mapping Spatial Patterns with Morphological Image Processing , 2007, Landscape Ecology.

[82]  M. Sahana,et al.  Evaluating effectiveness of frequency ratio, fuzzy logic and logistic regression models in assessing landslide susceptibility: a case from Rudraprayag district, India , 2017, Journal of Mountain Science.

[83]  Vinay Kumar Dadhwal,et al.  National assessment of forest fragmentation in India: Landscape indices as measures of the effects of fragmentation and forest cover change , 2013 .

[84]  S. Gairola,et al.  Effects of disturbance intensities on vegetation patterns in oak forests of Kumaun, west Himalaya , 2012, Journal of Mountain Science.

[85]  A. Lugo,et al.  Loss in species caused by tropical deforestation and their recovery through management. , 1993 .

[86]  J. Healey,et al.  Impacts of land-use change on sacred forests at the landscape scale , 2015 .

[87]  B. Shrestha,et al.  Facing north or south: Does slope aspect impact forest stand characteristics and soil properties in a semiarid trans-Himalayan valley? , 2015 .

[88]  Warrick Dawes,et al.  The significance of topology for modeling the surface hydrology of fluvial landscapes , 1994 .

[89]  Niti B. Mishra,et al.  Spatio-temporal analysis of trends in seasonal vegetation productivity across Uttarakhand, Indian Himalayas, 2000–2014 , 2015 .

[90]  John A. Kupfer,et al.  National assessments of forest fragmentation in the US , 2006 .

[91]  O. Vetaas,et al.  Effects of topography and land use on woody plant species composition and beta diversity in an arid Trans-Himalayan landscape, Nepal , 2014, Journal of Mountain Science.

[92]  Jean-François Mas,et al.  Modelling deforestation using GIS and artificial neural networks , 2004, Environ. Model. Softw..

[93]  Haroon Sajjad,et al.  Assessing spatio-temporal health of forest cover using forest canopy density model and forest fragmentation approach in Sundarban reserve forest, India , 2015, Modeling Earth Systems and Environment.

[94]  J. E. Cantlon,et al.  Vegetation and Microclimates on North and South Slopes of Cushetunk Mountain, New Jersey , 1953 .

[95]  H. Beyer,et al.  Thresholds in landscape connectivity and mortality risks in response to growing road networks , 2008 .

[96]  R. R. Chowdhury Landscape change in the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve, Mexico: Modeling the driving forces of smallholder deforestation in land parcels , 2006 .

[97]  Ning Zhang,et al.  Spatiotemporal changes and fragmentation of forest land in Jiangxi Province, China , 2017 .

[98]  Ellen I. Damschen,et al.  Habitat fragmentation and its lasting impact on Earth’s ecosystems , 2015, Science Advances.