Climatic change and Chinese population growth dynamics over the last millennium

The climate–population relationship has long been conceived. Although the topic has been repeatedly investigated, most of the related works are Eurocentric or qualitative. Consequently, the relationship between climate and population remains ambiguous. In this study, fine-grained temperature reconstructions and historical population data sets have been employed to statistically test a hypothesized relationship between temperature change and population growth (i.e., cooling associated with below average population growth) in China over the past millennium. The important results were: (1) Long-term temperature change significantly determined the population growth dynamics of China. However, spatial variation existed, whilst population growth in Central China was shown to be responsive to both long- and short-term temperature changes; in marginal areas, population growth was only sensitive to short-term temperature fluctuations. (2) Temporally, the temperature–population relationship was obscured in some periods, which was attributable to the factors of drought and social buffers. In summary, a temperature–population relationship was mediated by geographic factors, the aridity threshold, and social factors. Given the upcoming threat posed by climate change to human societies, this study seeks to improve our knowledge and understanding of the climate–society relationship.

[1]  Z. An,et al.  The history and variability of the East Asian paleomonsoon climate , 2000 .

[2]  Galloway Pr.  Annual Variations in Deaths by Age, Deaths by Cause, Prices, and Weather in London 1670 to 1830 , 1985 .

[3]  J. E. Cohen,et al.  Population growth and earth's human carrying capacity. , 1995, Science.

[4]  Ronald Lee.  Accidental and Systematic Change in Population History: Homeostasis in a Stochastic Setting , 1993 .

[5]  T. P. Barnett,et al.  High-resolution palaeoclimatic records for the last millennium: interpretation, integration and comparison with General Circulation Model control-run temperatures , 1998 .

[6]  K. Hsu.  Sun, climate, hunger, and mass migration , 1998 .

[7]  Feng Wang,et al.  One Quarter of Humanity: Malthusian Mythology and Chinese Realities, 1700-2000 , 1999 .

[8]  Songqiao Zhao,et al.  Physical geography of China , 1986 .

[9]  K. Holmgren,et al.  Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data , 2005, Nature.

[10]  P. Ho.  EARLY‐RIPENING RICE IN CHINESE HISTORY BY PING‐TI HO , 1956 .

[11]  S. Duncan,et al.  THE INTERACTING EFFECTS OF PRICES AND WEATHER ON POPULATION CYCLES IN A PREINDUSTRIAL COMMUNITY , 1998, Journal of Biosocial Science.

[12]  A. J. Lotka,et al.  Elements of Physical Biology. , 1925, Nature.

[13]  M. Wright,et al.  Studies on The Population of China, 1368-1953 , 1960 .

[14]  P. Ho.  The Introduction of American Food Plants into China1 , 1955 .

[15]  M. Ram,et al.  Sun/dust correlations and volcanic interference , 2002 .

[16]  D. Usher.  The Dynastic Cycle and the Stationary State. , 1989 .

[17]  S. Scott,et al.  The key role of nutrition in controlling human population dynamics , 2004, Nutrition Research Reviews.

[18]  P. R. Galloway,et al.  Long-term fluctuations in climate and population in the preindustrial era. , 1986 .

[19]  E. Cook,et al.  1738 years of Mongolian temperature variability inferred from a tree‐ring width chronology of Siberian pine , 2001 .

[20]  Jin-qi Fang.  Lake evolution during the past 30,000 years in China, and its implications for environmental change , 1991, Quaternary Research.

[21]  Shaopeng Huang.  Merging information from different resources for new insights into climate change in the past and future , 2004 .

[22]  Quansheng Ge,et al.  Winter half-year temperature reconstruction for the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and Yangtze River, China, during the past 2000 years , 2003 .

[23]  James W. Wood,et al.  A Theory of Preindustrial Population Dynamics Demography, Economy, and Well‐Being in Malthusian Systems1 , 1998, Current Anthropology.

[24]  J. D. Vries.  Measuring the Impact of Climate on History: The Search for Appropriate Methodologies , 1980 .

[25]  Guo Liu,et al.  Relationship between climatic change and the nomadic southward migrations in eastern Asia during historical times , 1992 .

[26]  Dwight H. Perkins,et al.  Agricultural development in China, 1368-1968 , 1969 .

[27]  J. Durand.  The population statistics of China, A.D. 2–1953 , 1960 .

[28]  D. Zhang,et al.  Climatic Change, Wars and Dynastic Cycles in China Over the Last Millennium , 2006 .

[29]  Michael W. Anderson,et al.  Malthus in state space: Macro economic-demographic relations in English history, 1540 to 1870 , 2002 .

[30]  W. Feng,et al.  One Quarter of Humanity: Malthusian Mythology and Chinese Realities . By James Z. Lee and Wang Feng. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1999. xii, 248 pp. , 2000, The Journal of Asian Studies.

[31]  G. Parker,et al.  The general crisis of the seventeenth century , 2005 .

[32]  David Pimentel,et al.  Human Population Numbers as a Function of Food Supply , 2001 .

[33]  E. Petersen.  G. Parker & L. M. Smith: The General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century. London, Routledge & Kegan Paul 1978. xi + 2835. £7.95. , 1982 .

[34]  Jingyun Zheng,et al.  Assessment on Climate Change in China for the Last 2000 Years , 2005 .

[35]  S. Solanki,et al.  Solar activity, cosmic rays, and Earth's temperature: A millennium‐scale comparison , 2005 .

[36]  Michael E. Mann,et al.  Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia , 2003 .

[37]  Scott Kennedy,et al.  Carrying capacity in agriculture: global and regional issues , 1999 .

[38]  A. J. Lotka.  Elements of Physical Biology. , 1925, Nature.

[39]  H. E. Wright.  Environmental Determinism in Near Eastern Prehistory , 1993, Current Anthropology.

[40]  D. E. Vasey.  A Quantitative Assessment of Buffers among Temperature Variations, Livestock, and the Human Population of Iceland, 1784 to 1900 , 2001 .

[41]  P. deMenocal.  Cultural Responses to Climate Change During the Late Holocene , 2001, Science.

[42]  Peter Turchin,et al.  Population Dynamics and Internal Warfare: A Reconsideration * , 2006 .

[43]  P. Ho.  Early-Ripening Rice in Chinese History , 1956 .

[44]  R. Bryson,et al.  Climatic variation and implications for world food production , 1977 .

[45]  Sung-chʿiao Chao,et al.  Geography of China : environment, resources, population, and development , 1996 .

[46]  Russell Hopfenberg.  Human Carrying Capacity Is Determined by Food Availability , 2003 .

[47]  M. Schlesinger,et al.  Are reconstructed pre‐instrumental hemispheric temperatures consistent with instrumental hemispheric temperatures? , 2004 .

[48]  A. Lotter,et al.  Climatic change and contemporaneous land-use phases north and south of the Alps 2300 BC to 800 AD , 2003 .

[49]  T. Malthus.  Essay on the Principle of Population , 2001 .

[50]  Colin McEvedy,et al.  Atlas of world population history , 1979 .

[51]  M. Hughes,et al.  Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations , 1999 .

[52]  W. Feng,et al.  Positive Check or Chinese Checks? , 2002, The Journal of Asian Studies.

[53]  D. L. Webster,et al.  Warfare and the Evolution of the State: A Reconsideration , 1975, American Antiquity.

[54]  Ronald Lee,et al.  Famine, revolt, and the dynastic cycle , 1994, Journal of population economics.

[55]  Clark L. Erickson.  Neo-environmental determinism and agrarian ‘collapse’ in Andean prehistory , 1999, Antiquity.

[56]  J. Hoenig,et al.  Superposed Epoch Analysis: A Randomization Test of Environmental Effects on Recruitment with Application to Chub Mackerel , 1989 .

[57]  Q. Ge,et al.  Spatiotemporal dynamics of reclamation and cultivation and its driving factors in parts of China during the last three centuries , 2004 .

[58]  Yemane Asmerom,et al.  Late Holocene Climate and Cultural Changes in the Southwestern United States , 2001, Science.

[59]  P. R. Galloway.  Secular changes in the short-term preventive, positive, and temperature checks to population growth in Europe, 1460 to 1909 , 1994, Climatic change.

[60]  Edward R. Cook,et al.  Low-Frequency Signals in Long Tree-Ring Chronologies for Reconstructing Past Temperature Variability , 2002, Science.

[61]  W. Qian,et al.  Spatial-temporal characteristics of temperature variation in China , 2006 .

[62]  Ronald Lee,et al.  Population homeostasis and English demographic history , 1985 .

[63]  A. Appleby.  Epidemics and famine in the little ice age 1550-1700. , 1980, The Journal of interdisciplinary history.

[64]  X. Qin,et al.  Cyclic rapid warming on centennial‐scale revealed by a 2650‐year stalagmite record of warm season temperature , 2003 .

[65]  Reid A. Bryson,et al.  Climates of hunger: Mankind and the world's changing weather , 1977 .

[66]  M. Grosjean,et al.  Human Occupations and Climate Change in the Puna de Atacama, Chile , 2002, Science.

[67]  S. Varfolomeyev,et al.  The hyperexponential growth of the human population on a macrohistorical scale. , 2001, Journal of theoretical biology.

[68]  R. Carneiro,et al.  INAUGURAL ARTICLE by a Recently Elected Academy Member:The transition from quantity to quality: A neglected causal mechanism in accounting for social evolution , 2000 .

[69]  S. Duncan,et al.  Human population dynamics , 2001, Annals of human biology.

[70]  E. Cook,et al.  Extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere land temperature variability over the past 1000 years , 2004 .

[71]  Shi Yafeng,et al.  General characteristics of temperature variation in China during the last two millennia , 2002 .

[72]  Joel E. Cohen,et al.  Population, economics, environment and culture : An introduction to human carrying capacity , 1997 .

[73]  D. Gong,et al.  Twentieth-century climatic warming in China in the context of the Holocene , 2001 .

[74]  D. Zhang,et al.  Paleo-monsoon activities of Mu Us Desert, China since 150 ka B.P. — a study of the stratigraphic sequences of the Milanggouwan Section, Salawusu River area , 2000 .

[75]  Michael E. Mann,et al.  Climate over past millennia , 2004 .

[76]  R. Bin Wong,et al.  Revising the Malthusian Narrative: The Comparative Study of Population Dynamics in Late Imperial China , 1998, The Journal of Asian Studies.

[77]  S. Hameed,et al.  The variation of moisture conditions in China during the last 2000 years , 2007 .

[78]  Jesse H. Ausubel,et al.  Carrying Capacity: A Model with Logistically Varying Limits , 1999 .

[79]  C.Y. Jim,et al.  Climate change, social unrest and dynastic transition in ancient China , 2005 .

[80]  Miriam Kochan,et al.  Capitalism and material life, 1400-1800 , 1973 .

[81]  T. Crowley,et al.  How Warm Was the Medieval Warm Period , 2000 .

[82]  Keith R. Briffa,et al.  Blowing Hot and Cold , 2002, Science.