When machines read the news: Using automated text analytics to quantify high frequency news-implied market reactions

We examine high-frequency market reactions to an intraday stock-specific news flow. Using unique pre-processed data from an automated news analytics tool based on linguistic pattern recognition we exploit information on the indicated relevance, novelty and direction of company-specific news. Employing a high-frequency VAR model based on 20 s data of a cross-section of stocks traded at the London Stock Exchange we find distinct responses in returns, volatility, trading volumes and bid-ask spreads due to news arrivals. We show that a classification of news according to indicated relevance is crucial to filter out noise and to identify significant effects. Moreover, sentiment indicators have predictability for future price trends though the profitability of news-implied trading is deteriorated by increased bid-ask spreads.

[1]  J. Geweke,et al.  THE ESTIMATION AND APPLICATION OF LONG MEMORY TIME SERIES MODELS , 1983 .

[2]  M. Mitchell,et al.  The Impact of Public Information on the Stock Market , 1994 .

[3]  P. Clark A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices , 1973 .

[4]  Maureen O'Hara,et al.  Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment , 1992 .

[5]  Sofus A. Macskassy,et al.  More than Words: Quantifying Language to Measure Firms' Fundamentals the Authors Are Grateful for Assiduous Research Assistance from Jie Cao and Shuming Liu. We Appreciate Helpful Comments From , 2007 .

[6]  Charles M. C. Lee,et al.  Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data , 1991 .

[7]  Oliver Kim,et al.  Market reaction to anticipated announcements , 1991 .

[8]  Paul C. Tetlock Does Public Financial News Resolve Asymmetric Information? , 2010 .

[9]  Maureen O'Hara,et al.  Market Statistics and Technical Analysis: The Role of Volume , 1994 .

[10]  Chenchuramaiah T. Bathala Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market , 2007 .

[11]  M. Fleming,et al.  Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Response to Public Information , 1999 .

[12]  M. Harris,et al.  Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race , 1993 .

[13]  Peter K. Pham,et al.  Public Information Arrival and Volatility of Intraday Stock Returns , 2002 .

[14]  Robert E. Verrecchia,et al.  Market liquidity and volume around earnings announcements , 1994 .

[15]  James D. Hamilton Time Series Analysis , 1994 .

[16]  J. G. Cragg Some Statistical Models for Limited Dependent Variables with Application to the Demand for Durable Goods , 1971 .

[17]  Brad M. Barber,et al.  All that Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors , 2006 .

[18]  Jason Lee,et al.  Earnings Announcements and the Components of the Bid-Ask Spread , 1996 .

[19]  George Tauchen,et al.  THE PRICE VARIABILITY-VOLUME RELATIONSHIP ON SPECULATIVE MARKETS , 1983 .

[20]  Neil D. Pearson,et al.  Differential Interpretation of Public Signals and Trade in Speculative Markets , 1995, Journal of Political Economy.

[21]  Thomas D. Berry,et al.  Public Information Arrival , 1994 .

[22]  Jonathan M. Karpoff A Theory of Trading Volume , 1986 .

[23]  Werner Antweiler,et al.  Is All that Talk Just Noise? The Information Content of Internet Stock Message Boards , 2001 .

[24]  Maureen O'Hara,et al.  PRICE, TRADE SIZE, AND INFORMATION IN SECURITIES MARKETS* , 1987 .

[25]  Nikolaus Hautsch,et al.  Capturing Common Components in High-Frequency Financial Time Series: A Multivariate Stochastic Multiplicative Error Model , 2008 .

[26]  A. Lo,et al.  THE ECONOMETRICS OF FINANCIAL MARKETS , 1996, Macroeconomic Dynamics.

[27]  Charles M. C. Lee,et al.  Spreads, Depths, and the Impact of Earnings Information: An Intraday Analysis , 1993 .

[28]  Jeffrey A. Busse,et al.  Market Efficiency in Real-Time , 2001 .