Developing strategies for robust energy systems. I: Methodology

Strategic energy planning is concerned with investments in energy technologies with long lead times and long life times. Of special interest are uncertainties about future developments that could lead to a major reappraisal of the cost-efficiency of different energy technologies. Decision making in this context is concerned, therefore, with finding a solution to the decision problem which is both low-cost and robust. Here, a method is described for using hedging to improve the robustness of the energy system. The method is applied using a standard energy systems model, MARKAL. It is shown how the model results can be used for a quantitative analysis of the robustness of the energy system. A study of the Swedish energy system is used as an example, where the uncertain factor is whether or not future restrictions on CO2 emissions will be imposed.

[1]  Clas-Otto Wene,et al.  Integrated energy-emissions control planning in the community of Uppsala , 1992 .

[2]  Alan S. Manne,et al.  MARKAL-MACRO: A linked model for energy-economy analysis , 1992 .

[3]  Arthur M. Geoffrion,et al.  The Purpose of Mathematical Programming is Insight, Not Numbers , 1976 .

[4]  Tomas Larsson.  Developing strategies for robust energy systems. II: Application to CO2 risk management , 1993 .

[5]  Alan S. Manne,et al.  Buying greenhouse insurance , 1992 .

[6]  Dale W. Jorgenson,et al.  Economic and Technological Models for Evaluation of Energy Policy , 1977 .

[7]  David C. Lane,et al.  Modelling as learning: A consultancy methodology for enhancing learning in management teams , 1992 .

[8]  Jonathan Rosenhead,et al.  Planning under Uncertainty: II. A Methodology for Robustness Analysis , 1980 .

[9]  Jonathan Rosenhead,et al.  Planning Under Uncertainty: 1. The Inflexibility of Methodologies , 1980 .

[10]  David E. Bell,et al.  Regret in Decision Making under Uncertainty , 1982, Oper. Res..

[11]  Eric Sowey,et al.  Dissemination of macroeconometric models: Is a new age dawning? , 1991 .

[12]  Clas-Otto Wene,et al.  Mathematical and computer modelling reports: A comprehensive energy model in the municipal energy planning process , 1989 .

[13]  J. Rosenhead,et al.  Robustness in Sequential Investment Decisions , 1968 .

[14]  Leslie G. Fishbone,et al.  Markal, a linear‐programming model for energy systems analysis: Technical description of the bnl version , 1981 .

[15]  Alain Haurie,et al.  Modelling energy use in the mineral processing industries of Ontario with MARKAL-Ontario☆ , 1989 .

[16]  J. Rosenhead,et al.  Robustness and Optimality as Criteria for Strategic Decisions , 1972 .