论文信息 - Prediction and analysis of Sudden Oak Death (SOD) risk in the west coast of America based on Maxent model

Prediction and analysis of Sudden Oak Death (SOD) risk in the west coast of America based on Maxent model

Sudden Oak Death (SOD) is one of the most serious diseases in the west coast of the United States. In the USA, SOD is mainly found in California and Oregon. It is necessary to predict the outbreak risk area of SOD in the future. In this paper, based on current global vegetation cover data, past climate data and future climate data (two emission scenarios RCP26 and RCP85), the Maxent model was used to predict the risk of SOD in the west coast of America in 2000, 2050, 2070. The results showed that the risk of SOD will increase in the west coast of the United States, and the high risk areas will show a trend of contiguous. Compared with that in 2000, high-risk areas in the west coast of the United States will increase by 174% in 2070 under RCP85.

[1] Mahesh Kumar,et al. Predicting the potential geographic distribution of cotton mealybug Phenacoccus solenopsis in India based on MAXENT ecological niche model. , 2014, Journal of environmental biology.

[2] D. Rizzo,et al. Phytophthora ramorum as the Cause of Extensive Mortality of Quercus spp. and Lithocarpus densiflorus in California. , 2002, Plant disease.

[3] Sassan Saatchi,et al. Modeling distribution of Amazonian tree species and diversity using remote sensing measurements , 2008 .

[4] E. Jaynes. Information Theory and Statistical Mechanics , 1957 .

[5] S. Sarkar,et al. Malaria in Africa: Vector Species' Niche Models and Relative Risk Maps , 2007, PloS one.

[6] Wilfried Thuiller,et al. Prediction and validation of the potential global distribution of a problematic alien invasive species — the American bullfrog , 2007 .

[7] Robert P. Anderson,et al. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions , 2006 .