ARE YOUNG DRIVERS REALLY MORE DANGEROUS-AFTER CONTROLLING FOR EXPOSURE AND EXPERIENCE?

A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS TO DETERMINE THE EFFECT OF DRIVING EXPOSURE AND EXPERIENCE ON THE ACCIDENT AND VIOLATION RECORDS OF YOUNG DRIVERS IS REPORTED. WITH A PROBABILITY SAMPLE OF 3,000 SUBURBAN DRIVERS, DRIVING INFRACTIONS IN THE PAST YEAR (NUMBER OF ACCIDENTS OF ANY SEVERITY AND NUMBER OF VIOLATIONS PLUS WARNINGS) WERE OBTAINED FROM BOTH PERSONAL INTERVIEWS AND OFFICIAL FILES AND EXAMINED IN RELATION TO AGE FOR MEN AND WOMEN AGED 16-24 AND 35-44. TWO NONLINEAR METHODS WERE USED TO CONTROL FOR EXPOSURE. ROAD EXPERIENCE WAS CONTROLLED BY THE AGE WHEN DRIVING WAS LEARNED. UNDER ALL PROCEDURES, SIGNIFICANT AGE EFFECTS WERE OBSERVED: YOUNG MEN AGED 18 AND 19 HAD MORE VIOLATIONS THAN MEN EITHER YOUNGER OR OLDER; AMONG MEN WHO LEARNED TO DRIVE AT AGE 15, THE "RECOMMENDED" AGE FOR DRIVER EDUCATION, THE CRASH AND VIOLATION PEAKS WERE DELAYED ONE OR TWO YEARS. /JSR/