Contemporary predictors of coronary artery disease in patients referred for angiography

Aims Risk stratification is often used to determine the need and priority for coronary angiography. We investigated the contemporary value of Framingham and SCORE risk models, individual risk factors, B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) in the current era of intensive risk management. Methods and results Coronary artery disease (CAD) was obstructive (≥ 50% stenosis) in 328 of 539 patients referred for elective diagnostic coronary angiography (61%). Lower rates of smoking, more exercise and lower cholesterol were noted in those with angiographic CAD, compatible with risk factor modification in these patients. Framingham and SCORE were associated with CAD both in patients with and without prior cardiovascular disease (CVD). In multivariate analysis only age, male sex, diabetes, chest pain and prior CVD were independent predictors of CAD; odds ratio 1.74 per 10 years (95% confidence interval: 1.34-2.27), 5.48 (3.36-8.92), 2.57 (1.44-4.60), 1.69 (1.02-2.81) and 2.61 (1.65-4.12), respectively. Classification of disease was not improved by B-type natriuretic peptide or hs-CRP when added to conventional risk factors, although the latter seems to have value in patients without earlier CVD and low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol of less than 3.4 mmol/l; the adjusted odds ratio for hs-CRP ≥ 2 mg/l in this sub-group was 2.49 (1.12-5.51, P = 0.024). Conclusion Framingham and SCORE risk models can be used in clinical practice to predict angiographic coronary disease although risk factor modification limits the predictive value of smoking, blood pressure, lipid profiles and cardiac biomarkers. Eur J Cardiovasc Prev Rehabil 17:280-288 © 2010 The European Society of Cardiology