Analyzing Transition Dynamics: The Actor-Option Framework for Modelling Socio-Technical Systems

Transition can be characterized as long-term structural changes in the societal systems, through which the way these systems function change significantly. Both the scope and extent of change, and the nature of the societal systems make transition processes a complex dynamic phenomena to understand. This study explores both methodological and conceptual issues in order to contribute to the ways transitions are analyzed. On the methodological frontier, the book investigates different forms of simulation-supported analysis. On the conceptual frontier, the study focuses on structural and behavioral similarities among socio-technical systems in order to develop a general modelling framework that can serve as a conceptual basis for simulation-supported analyses. Additional to introducing the developed framework, i.e. the actor-option framework, the book also presents a set of modelling studies that are based on the actor-option framework. Besides two simulation-supported analyses on historical transitions in the British naval transportation and the Dutch waste management systems, the third modelling study focuses on plausible transition trajectories for the Dutch electricity supply system.

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