Using functional traits to model annual plant community dynamics.

Predicting the response of biological communities to changes in the environment or management is a fundamental pursuit of community ecology. Meeting this challenge requires the integration of multiple processes: habitat filtering, niche differentiation, biotic interactions, competitive exclusion, and stochastic demographic events. Most approaches to this long-standing problem focus either on the role of the environment, using trait-based filtering approaches, or on quantifying biotic interactions with process-based community dynamics models. We introduce a novel approach that uses functional traits to parametrise a process-based model. By combining the two approaches we make use of the extensive literature on traits and community filtering as a convenient means of reducing the parametrisation requirements of a complex population dynamics model whilst retaining the power to capture the processes underlying community assembly. Using arable weed communities as a case study, we demonstrate that this approach results in predictions that show realistic distributions of traits and that trait selection predicted by our simulations is consistent with in-field observations. We demonstrate that trait-based filtering approaches can be combined with process-based models to derive the emergent distribution of traits. While initially developed to predict the impact of crop management on functional shifts in weed communities, our approach has the potential to be applied to other annual plant communities if the generality of relationships between traits and model parameters can be confirmed.