Impacts and implications of climatic extremes for resilience planning of transportation energy: A case study of New York city

Abstract An integrated alternative planning can control climate change drivers and mitigate or neutralize the adverse impacts of the changing climate on the transportation energy sector. In this article, we introduced an infrastructure of alternative fuel as a synergistic approach to climate-adaptation and -mitigation, and advanced a quantitative method to simulate the dependency of travel behavior on fuel availability when the infrastructure of transportation energy is stressed or under attack. Our approach allows both commuters traveling behavior and properties of transportation energy system to interact. Featuring a multi-stage mathematical program, the proposed model was used to study the resilience of New York City's transportation energy sector in the face of a range of climatic extremes. We found the impact of the changing climate on energy sector is major and worsening over time. The modeling results also reveal spatial distribution of vulnerable elements in both transportation and fueling infrastructures, the system's overall resilience in time of disaster, and the daily-commuters impact of vulnerable energy infrastructure. The modeling results are crucial to successful integrated planning response to climate-adaptation and -mitigation.

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