A decision making procedure for robust train rescheduling based on mixed integer linear programming and Data Envelopment Analysis

Abstract This paper presents a self-learning decision making procedure for robust real-time train rescheduling in case of disturbances. The procedure is applicable to aperiodic timetables of mixed-tracked networks and it consists of three steps. The first two are executed in real-time and provide the rescheduled timetable, while the third one is executed offline and guarantees the self-learning part of the method. In particular, in the first step, a robust timetable is determined, which is valid for a finite time horizon. This robust timetable is obtained solving a mixed integer linear programming problem aimed at finding the optimal compromise between two objectives: the minimization of the delays of the trains and the maximization of the robustness of the timetable. In the second step, a merging procedure is first used to join the obtained timetable with the nominal one. Then, a heuristics is applied to identify and solve all conflicts eventually arising after the merging procedure. Finally, in the third step an offline cross-efficiency fuzzy Data Envelopment Analysis technique is applied to evaluate the efficiency of the rescheduled timetable in terms of delays minimization and robustness maximization when different relevance weights (defining the compromise between the two optimization objectives) are used in the first step. The procedure is thus able to determine appropriate relevance weights to employ when disturbances of the same type affect again the network. The railway service provider can take advantage of this procedure to automate, optimize, and expedite the rescheduling process. Moreover, thanks to the self-learning capability of the procedure, the quality of the rescheduling is improved at each reapplication of the method. The technique is applied to a real data set related to a regional railway network in Southern Italy to test its effectiveness.