Don't Predict the Future–Direct it! Comments on the intellectual history, the Logical and Applicative Visibility, and the Underlying Assumptions of Directed Evolution (DE)

The best way to predict the future is to invent it. —Alan Kay 1 It is obvious that there are patterns of cultural change—evolution in the neutral sense—and any theory of cultural change worth more than a moment's consideration will have to be Darwinian in the minimal sense of being consistent with the theory of evolution by natural selection of Homo sapiens. —Daniel Dennett 2 The future is here. It's just not widely distributed yet. —William Gibson 3 It is the magician's wand, by means of which he may summon into life whatever form and mould he pleases. —Charles Darwin commenting on the power of artificial selection 4 This article introduces an applied Theory of Evolution of Artificial Systems, called Directed Evolution (DE). The theory is grounded in fifty years of research on Inventive Engineering known as TRIZ, which started in the former Soviet Union by G. Altshuller and continues today. The theory has generated a set of Patterns and Lines of Evolution that represent a compilation of trends that document strong, historically recurring tendencies in the development of manmade systems in general and technological systems in particular. Directed Evolution is the systematic applied-oriented process for “predicting” future generations of a system by inventing them along these evolutionary patterns. The current article introduces the theory, reflects on its basic underlying logic, and provides a broad historical context and intellectual justification for such an effort. It shows that the quest of DE theory and practice falls well within the boundaries of past pursuits to identify evolutionary patterns of complex systems and to use these patterns to control and manipulate possible futures of artificial systems.

[1]  G. S. Alʹtshuller,et al.  The Innovation Algorithm:TRIZ, systematic innovation and technical creativity , 1999 .

[2]  Kate Distin.  The Selfish Meme: A Critical Reassessment , 2004 .

[3]  Fernando Suarez,et al.  Patterns of Industrial Evolution, Dominant Designs, and Firms' Survival , 1993 .

[4]  C. Lyell.  Principles of Geology; Being an Attempt to Explain the Former Changes of the Earth's Surface, by Reference to Causes Now in Operation , 2009 .

[5]  William Emerson,et al.  The Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy , 2013 .

[6]  G. Mann.  The Quark and the Jaguar: adventures in the simple and the complex , 1994 .

[7]  D. Dennett.  Darwin's Dangerous Idea: Evolution and the Meanings of Life , 1995 .

[8]  Erich Jantsch,et al.  Technological forecasting in perspective : a framework for technological forecasting, its techniques and organisation; a description of activities and annotated bibliography , 1966 .

[9]  John M. Swales,et al.  Consilience: The Unity of Knowledge , 1999 .

[10]  Boris Zlotin,et al.  TRIZ Beyond Technology: The theory and practice of applying TRIZ to non-technical areas , 2005 .

[11]  Dana W Clarke,et al.  Strategically Evolving the Future , 2000 .

[12]  James M. Utterback,et al.  Mastering the Dynamics of Innovation , 1996 .

[13]  R. S. Isenson,et al.  Technological Forecasting in Perspective , 1966 .

[14]  Isaac Sir Newton.  Opticks, or, A treatise of the reflections, refractions, inflections & colours of light , 1933 .

[15]  David Quammen,et al.  The reluctant Mr. Darwin : an intimate portrait of Charles Darwin and the making of his theory of evolution , 2007 .

[16]  Alec A. Schaerer.  Book Review: Edward O. Wilson. 1998. Consilience: the Unity of Knowledge. Alfred A. Knopf, New York , 1999 .

[17]  J. W. V. Spronsen,et al.  The Periodic System of Chemical Elements. A History of the First Hundred Years , 1969 .

[18]  Tom L. Beauchamp,et al.  An enquiry concerning human understanding : a critical edition , 2000 .

[19]  Mark Cantley,et al.  Technological forecasting in perspective , 1967 .

[20]  R. Dawkins.  The Blind Watchmaker , 1986 .

[21]  C. Darwin.  The Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection, Or, The Preservation of Favoured Races in the Struggle for Life , 1859 .

[22]  B. Gruenberg.  What Evolution Is , 1926 .

[23]  G. Altshuller.  Creativity as an exact science : the theory of the solution of inventive problems , 1984 .

[24]  R. Lewontin.  ‘The Selfish Gene’ , 1977, Nature.

[25]  C. Darwin.  The Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection, Or, The Preservation of Favoured Races in the Struggle for Life , 2019 .

[26]  P. Hassner,et al.  Culture and Society , 2019, Paraguay.

[27]  S. Pinker.  The Blank Slate: The Modern Denial of Human Nature , 2002 .

[28]  Norman MacBeth,et al.  Ever Since Darwin: Reflections on Natural History , 1978 .

[29]  F. Crick,et al.  Molecular Structure of Nucleic Acids: A Structure for Deoxyribose Nucleic Acid , 1974, Nature.

[30]  H. J. Fleure,et al.  Configurations of Culture Growth , 1946, Nature.

[31]  R. Dawkins,et al.  The extended phenotype : the gene as the unit of selection , 1982 .

[32]  C. Darwin.  Charles Darwin The Origin of Species by means of Natural Selection or The Preservation of Favoured Races in the Struggle for Life , 2004 .

[33]  R. Aunger.  The Electric Meme: A New Theory of How We Think , 2002 .

[34]  D. Dennett.  Kinds of Minds: Towards an Understanding of Consciousness , 1996 .

[35]  Christopher J. Prom.  Business Process Management (BPM): The Third Wave , 2003 .

[36]  S. Blackmore.  The Meme Machine , 1999 .

[37]  C. Darwin.  The origin of species by means of natural selecti : or, The preservation of favored races in the struggle for life / , 2022 .

[38]  L. Gabora.  The Origin and Evolution of Culture and Creativity , 1997 .

[39]  H. Barry,et al.  Culture and Society , 2021, Survival.

[40]  Morton H. Fried,et al.  The Evolution of Political Society: An Essay in Political Anthropology , 1967 .

[41]  D. Dennett.  Consciousness Explained. Boston (Little, Brown and Co) 1991. , 1991 .

[42]  Joseph Paul Martino,et al.  Technological Forecasting for Decisionmaking , 1975 .

[43]  P. Atkins.  The Periodic Kingdom: A Journey Into The Land Of The Chemical Elements , 1995 .

[44]  C. Lyell.  Principles of geology, or, the modern changes of the earth and its inhabitants : considered as illustrative of geology : in two volumes , 2012 .

[45]  D. Dennett,et al.  Darwinizing culture : the status of memetics as a science , 2001 .

[46]  Carl von Linné.  Systema Naturae: Per Regna Tria Naturae, Secundum Classes, Ordines, Genera, Species, Cum Characteribus, Differentiis, Synonymis, Locis, , 2011 .