The search for a safe environment: The economics of screening and regulating environmental hazards

Abstract In protecting human health and safety, federal agencies use costly screening tests to gain information on the risks associated with potential environmental hazards. This paper develops a search-theoretic model of the screening and regulatory process. Potential hazards yield benefits that depend on the regulatory action and the hazard's true state of nature. Optimal screening rules are characterized by upper and lower bounds on the decision maker's subjective probability of hazard. Optimal regulatory policies depend on the cost-benefit ratio of regulation. An illustrative example examines the optimal economic use of mutagenicity tests and animal bioassays in carcinogen risk assessment.

[1]  E Zeiger,et al.  Carcinogenicity of mutagens: predictive capability of the Salmonella mutagenesis assay for rodent carcinogenicity. , 1987, Cancer research.

[2]  J K Haseman,et al.  Comparative results of 327 chemical carcinogenicity studies. , 1987, Environmental health perspectives.

[3]  T E Graedel,et al.  Statistical analysis of Salmonella test data and comparison to results of animal cancer tests. , 1988, Mutation research.

[4]  L. Bernstein,et al.  Interspecies extrapolation in carcinogenesis: prediction between rats and mice. , 1989, Environmental health perspectives.

[5]  H S Rosenkranz,et al.  Prediction of environmental carcinogens: a strategy for the mid-1980s. , 1984, Environmental mutagenesis.

[6]  T. Page.  On the Meaning of the Preponderance Test in Judicial Regulation of Chemical Hazard , 1983 .

[7]  M. A. Girshick,et al.  Bayes and minimax solutions of sequential decision problems , 1949 .

[8]  Herbert S. Rosenkranz,et al.  Information value of the rodent bioassay , 1988, Nature.

[9]  Myron B Fiering,et al.  Prioritization of chemical carcinogenesis testing: the use of production data , 1985 .

[10]  Lester B. Lave,et al.  A Model for Selecting Short-Term Tests of Carcinogenicity , 1983 .

[11]  Lester B. Lave,et al.  Cost-effectiveness of short-term tests for carcinogenicity , 1986, Nature.

[12]  H S Rosenkranz,et al.  Quantifying genotoxicity and non-genotoxicity. , 1988, Mutation research.

[13]  B H Margolin,et al.  Prediction of chemical carcinogenicity in rodents from in vitro genetic toxicity assays. , 1987, Science.

[14]  I. Purchase,et al.  Reflections on the declining ability of the Salmonella assay to detect rodent carcinogens as positive. , 1988, Mutation research.

[15]  Dale T. Mortensen,et al.  Chapter 15 Job search and labor market analysis , 1986 .

[16]  M C Weinstein,et al.  Cost-effective priorities for cancer prevention. , 1983, Science.

[17]  B. Ames,et al.  Detection of carcinogens as mutagens in the Salmonella/microsome test: assay of 300 chemicals. , 1975, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[18]  R. Tennant,et al.  Chemical structure, Salmonella mutagenicity and extent of carcinogenicity as indicators of genotoxic carcinogenesis among 222 chemicals tested in rodents by the U.S. NCI/NTP. , 1988, Mutation research.

[19]  Michael J. Moore,et al.  The Quantity-Adjusted Value of Life , 1988 .

[20]  W. Viscusi,et al.  Regulating Consumer Product Safety , 1984 .

[21]  Division on Earth.  Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process , 1983 .

[22]  A. Stead,et al.  An analysis by chemical class of Salmonella mutagenicity tests as predictors of animal carcinogenicity. , 1988, Mutation research.

[23]  J. Berger.  Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis , 1988 .

[24]  Noel A Cressie,et al.  The VPRT: optimal sequential and nonsequential testing , 1988 .

[25]  D. Mebs,et al.  Toxicity Testing. Strategies to Determine Needs and Priorities: U.S. National Toxicology Program. 382 pp. Washington, DC: National Academy Press (1984) , 1987 .

[26]  Talbot Page,et al.  A FRAMEWORK FOR UNREASONABLE RISK IN THE TOXIC SUBSTANCES CONTROL ACT (TSCA) , 1981, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences.

[27]  M. Degroot.  Optimal Statistical Decisions , 1970 .

[28]  Lester B. Lave,et al.  Screening Toxic Chemicals: How Accurate Must Tests Be? , 1988 .

[29]  L B Lave,et al.  Scientific and cost-effectiveness criteria in selecting batteries of short-term tests. , 1988, Mutation research.

[30]  H S Rosenkranz,et al.  Artificial intelligence and Bayesian decision theory in the prediction of chemical carcinogens. , 1985, Mutation research.

[31]  H S Rosenkranz,et al.  Assembly and preliminary analysis of a genotoxicity data base for predicting carcinogens. , 1985, Mutation research.