MODELS OF USER PRE-TRIP AND EN-ROUTE SWITCHING DECISIONS IN RESPONSE TO REAL-TIME INFORMATION

This paper addresses path switching decisions made by commuters in response to real-time information, as well as pre-trip departure time and route choices. A multinomial probit model framework is used, allowing us to capture the serial correlation arising from repeated decisions made by the same respondent. The resulting model estimates support the notion that switching decisions are predicated on the expectation of an improvement in trip time that exceeds a certain threshold (indifference band), which varies systematically with the remaining trip time to the destination, subject to a minimum absolute improvement (about one minute). The results also highlight the importance of perceived information quality on user decisions.

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