Qualitative Verbal Explanations in Bayesian Belief Networks

Application of Bayesian belief networks in systems that interact directly with human users, such as decision support systems, requires eeective user interfaces. The principal task of such interfaces is bridging the gap between probabilistic models and human intuitive approaches to modeling uncertainty. We describe several methods for automatic generation of qualitative verbal explanations in systems based on Bayesian belief networks. We show simple techniques for explaining the structure of a belief network model and the interactions among its variables. We also present a technique for generating qualitative explanations of reasoning.

[1]  Marek J. Druzdzel,et al.  Intercausal Reasoning with Uninstantiated Ancestor Nodes , 1993, UAI.

[2]  Ingrid Zukerman,et al.  Strategies for Generating Micro Explanations for Bayesian Belief Networks , 2013, UAI 1989.

[3]  D. J. Spiegelhalter,et al.  Statistical and Knowledge‐Based Approaches to Clinical Decision‐Support Systems, with an Application in Gastroenterology , 1984 .

[4]  Chris Elsaesser,et al.  Explanation of Probabilistic Inference , 1987, Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence.

[5]  Theresa M. Mullin,et al.  A Probability Analysis of the Usefulness of Decision Aids , 1989, UAI.

[6]  Dominic A. Clark,et al.  Representing uncertain knowledge - an artificial intelligence approach , 1993 .

[7]  William G. Cole,et al.  Understanding Bayesian reasoning via graphical displays , 1989, CHI '89.

[8]  Max Henrion,et al.  Verbal Expressions for Probability Updates: How Much More Probable is "Much More Probable"? , 1989, UAI.

[9]  D. Heckerman,et al.  Toward Normative Expert Systems: Part I The Pathfinder Project , 1992, Methods of Information in Medicine.

[10]  M. Henrion,et al.  Using scenarios to explain probabilistic inference , 1990 .

[11]  A. Tversky,et al.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.

[12]  Max Henrion,et al.  A Framework for Comparing Uncertain Inference Systems to Probability , 1985, UAI.

[13]  Henri Jacques Suermondt,et al.  Explanation in Bayesian belief networks , 1992 .

[14]  Judea Pearl,et al.  Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems - networks of plausible inference , 1991, Morgan Kaufmann series in representation and reasoning.

[15]  Michael P. Wellman Fundamental Concepts of Qualitative Probabilistic Networks , 1990, Artif. Intell..

[16]  Bruce G. Buchanan,et al.  The MYCIN Experiments of the Stanford Heuristic Programming Project , 1985 .

[17]  Steven W. Norton An explanation mechanism for bayesian inferencing systems , 1986, UAI.

[18]  David V. Budescu,et al.  A review of human linguistic probability processing: General principles and empirical evidence , 1995, The Knowledge Engineering Review.

[19]  Marek J. Druzdzel,et al.  Efficient Reasoning in Qualitative Probabilistic Networks , 1993, AAAI.

[20]  Marek J Druzdzel,et al.  Relevance in Probabilistic Models: "Backyards" in a "Small World" , 1994 .