Vintage Human Capital, Growth, and the Diffusion of New Technology

We develop a model of vintage human capital in which each technology requires vintage-specific skills. We examine the properties of a stationary equilibrium for our economy. The stationary equilibrium is characterized by an endogenous distribution of skilled workers across vintages. The distribution is shown to be single-peaked. Under general conditions, there is a lag between the appearance of a technology and its peak usage, a phenomenon known as diffusion. An increase in the rate of exogenous technological change shifts the distribution of human capital to more recent vintages, thereby increasing the diffusion rate.

[1]  Yves Balcer,et al.  Technological expectations and adoption of improved technology , 1984 .

[2]  M. King,et al.  INVESTMENT AND TECHNICAL PROGRESS , 1992 .

[3]  Intertemporal Aspects of Learning New Techniques: Implications for Efficiency and Distribution , 1986 .

[4]  Z. Griliches.  HYBRID CORN: AN EXPLORATION IN THE ECONOMIC OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE , 1957 .

[5]  Sandeep Kapur,et al.  On Technological Expectations , 1992 .

[6]  Anticipated Automation: A Rational Expectations Model of Technological Diffusion , 1984 .

[7]  Bertil Olofsson,et al.  A contribution to the theory of diffusion of sorbed substances into and out of fibres , 1954 .

[8]  S. Klepper,et al.  Time Paths in the Diffusion of Product Innovations , 1982 .

[9]  Boyan Jovanovic,et al.  Entry, exit and diffusion with learning by doing , 1989 .

[10]  C. L. Sheng.  A Theory of Value , 1991 .

[11]  M. Spence.  Cost Reduction, Competition and Industry Performance , 1984 .

[12]  Boyan Jovanovic,et al.  Competitive Diffusion , 1993, Journal of Political Economy.

[13]  R. Jensen,et al.  Innovation adoption and diffusion when there are competing innovations , 1983 .

[14]  Jennifer F. Reinganum.  On the diffusion of new technology: A game theoretic approach , 1981 .

[15]  E. Mansfield.  Industrial research and technological innovation , 1968 .

[16]  Morton I. Kamien,et al.  Timing of Innovations Under Rivalry , 1972 .

[17]  S. Davies.  The Diffusion of Process Innovations , 1979 .

[18]  Edwin Mansfield,et al.  Industrial Research and Technological Innovation: An Econometric Analysis , 1968 .