论文信息 - EVALUATION OF THE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE WITH UNCERTAIN DISTRIBUTION PARAMETERS

EVALUATION OF THE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE WITH UNCERTAIN DISTRIBUTION PARAMETERS

Abstract Formulations are presented for estimating probability of failure considering uncertainty of distribution parameters in time invariant and time variant reliability analyses. Based on the formulations the probability of failure can be calculated by recursively using the first order reliability method. Also, a more efficient approximate analysis procedure by using the point estimate method to estimate the probability of failure is given. In this analysis procedure, the point estimate method is used to discretize the uncertain distribution parameters in the time invariant reliability analysis, and to discretize the time-independent random variables and uncertain distribution parameters in the time variant reliability analysis. The probability of failure is then obtained by weighting the probability of failure conditioned at each of discrete points. The conditional probability of failure can be calculated by using first order reliability method, second order reliability method or any other convenient ...

Han Ping Hong

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